If Labour need ideas...

Clive points out that John Prescott is a late addition to the line-up at the Festival of Ideas in Bristol. Maybe, Prezza is going to reinvent himself as the new Labour philosopher.

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Not so capital

Before we get back to discussing Crewe and Nantwich and what happens next, I’m going to have a little rant about London traffic and the price of taxis. This morning, I was doing in an interview near Marble Arch and then going to have lunch at half twelve with Clive Davis on Greek Street. The interview finished about 12:15 so to be sure I’d be on time, I decided to hail a cab. 25 minutes and £13.80 later, I arrived in Greek Street.

Now, I’m not quire sure whether I’m more irritated by it taking 25 minutes to go 2.4 miles or that it cost me £5.75 per mile. It used to be said that in New York there was a $20 leaving your apartment tax, in London these days it feels like there’s a £25 fee for going out of your front door.  

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No more need to worry about Labour's long term plans

I am now in sunny Afghanistan, where we woke up to the Crewe result. This puts thing into a new perspective. It's becoming rapidly clear that we need not worry about the many long-term plans of this government (abolish A-Levels, reform pensions, identity cards and the like). But what of the commitment to Iraq and Afghanistan once Labour is gone? Liam Fox has spoken of the need to either spend more or deploy less.  We're still waiting to find which is to be the Tory answer.    

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What we know now

Here are a few things that I think we’ve learnt from last night’s result:

1). The Tories are now the best closers in British politics: In London, the local elections and last night the Tories did significantly better than the final opinion polls suggested they would. This suggests that the Tory ground game is now good enough to add a couple of points to their score. At the next election, this could make the difference between a slim and solid Tory majority.

2). ‘Tory hatred’ no longer moves votes: The Labour campaign desperately tried to whip up prejudice against a public school educated, lawyer who looked and sounded like a Tory. But this tactic comprehensively failed in a normally safe Labour seat; the electoral sting appears to have been finally drawn from the ‘Tory boy’ stereotype. The importance of this is that it means there is unlikely to be much, if any, anti-Tory tactical voting at the next election.

3). Labour has no positive message: The Labour campaign in Crewe and Nantwich as unremittingly negative as Labour had nothing positive to say. Indeed, when Harriet Harman was asked on the Today programme what Labour could offer voters the best thing she could come up with was some blather about home insulation.

4).The Tories are hungry: As Fraser notes in his political column, there were worries that the Tories were simply not hungry enough to capitalise on their opportunities. But in Crewe and Nantwich, the Tories saw the breach in Labour’s defences and poured through it. Cameron might have ordered all his MPs to the constituency but I haven’t heard a single MP complain about having to go while most Tories are boasting about how many times they have been up there.

5). This will get nasty: The BNP weren’t standing in Crewe and Nantwich and Labour responded by acting as if they wanted their votes; proof that Labour are now so desperate that they will try anything to win. When you consider how personal Labour went on a by-election candidate, you can deduce just how much mud Labour plan to throw at Cameron in a general election campaign. Encouragingly, though, the voters don’t seem to be buying the negative attacks at the moment. 

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Does Labour have no alternative to Brown?

Considering the size of the swing to the Tories last night, it no longer seems silly to talk about a leadership challenge to Gordon Brown. But Michael White’s analysis this morning neatly sums up why an actual challenge—as opposed to talk of one—is still unlikely:

"Can Labour MPs and their union paymasters, busy flexing their muscles again, get rid of Brown? In theory, yes. It would take 70 or so names to trigger a confidence vote. But who is there to take over, who could make a significant difference, even - unlikely - if the prime minister decided to walk? Most Labour MPs have no more experience of a political downturn than they do of a recession. There will be a lot of talk - up to cabinet level - but little more at this stage.

Why? It is not obvious who or what the answer is. Brown may be like Jim Callaghan, fated to follow a powerful premier - Harold Wilson - but unable to win his own mandate. That election wobble, speculation allowed to run too long last autumn, may have been the real turning point, Crewe the mere confirmation."

The one thing that might prompt someone to stand is the growing consensus that Brown simply can’t recover from this position. The size of the Tory lead after the conference season could be key in determining Brown’s fate.

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Crewe goes bright blue, will Labour now dump Brown?

If on April 29th, when Labour announced the date of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, you had told people that the Tories would win the seat by 7,860 votes you would have been laughed out of town. This result shows just how much in politics has changed in the last few weeks. The Tories have passed every test they have been presented with, Labour has failed every one. The Tories took the London Mayoralty, made huge gains in the local elections and have now triumphed in this by-election with a 17.6 percent swing.

A few weeks ago, the idea that Gordon Brown would be challenged for the Labour leadership would have sounded as, if not more, absurd as the idea that the Tories would win Crewe and Nantwich with a majority of nearly 8,000. But now it seems possible if not yet probable. The number of Labour MPs who now look almost certain to lose their seat is more than the number needed to trigger a leadership contest.

Labour is now in freefall; it is hard to remember the last good week for the government and the public seem to have taken against Brown with a passion. Brown was hidden in this contest—his image was on everyone but Labour’s leaflets. That, obviously, could not be done in a general.   

What will probably save Brown is a combination of the fact that there is no obvious successor and that Labour would look absurd changing leaders again. One also wonders how the public would react to another change in Prime Minister without a general election.

Brown has been Prime Minister for less than a year, but he already looks like he is done. He is out of ideas and facing an electorate who are no longer prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. The failure of Labour’s negative campaign in Crewe and Nantwich also shows that anti-Tory feeling can no longer be relied upon to save Labour.

This result is a fantastic one for the Conservatives, they won by 19 points, and a diabolical one for Labour.  If tonight’s swing was replicated across the country, Labour would be down to 100 seats. That thought will prey on the mind of every Labour MP over the Whitsun Recess. The question is what will they do about it once they return to Westminster.

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If this swing was replicated nationwide at the next election, Labour would be down to 100 MPs

John Curtice has just crunched the numbers for the BBC and found that if this swing happened across the country at the next election, there would be 497 Tory MPs and only 100 Labour ones. Clearly, this isn't going to happen. But it will concentrate the minds of Labour backbenchers.

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Tory majority of 7,860

The Returning Officer has just declared the official result and Edward Timpson is the new MP for Crewe and Nantwich. This is a massive defeat for Labour and will make many Labour MPs distinctly fearful about their own prospects.

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Final result sometime after 2am

No one is disputing that Labour has taken a mighty kicking tonight but we are going to have to wait until a little bit after 2am for the formal declaration. Turnout was high at 58 percent, but the word is that Tory Nantwich turned out in force while Labour Crewe stayed at home. This suggests that the Labour campaign had the opposite effect from intended--turning out the Tory base.  

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Will the recess save Brown?

The one consolation for Gordon Brown about tonight's result is that the MPs are all leaving Westminster for the Whitsun recess and so the opportunities to plot will be limited. Alternatively, MPs could get it in the neck from their constituents and local parties about how bad things are and return to London steeled to the task ahead.

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