Glorious
11:43pm
Manchester United defeat Chelsea in the Champions League final, Moscow.
I’ve just been filing in an application for credentials to the Labour party conference and was gobsmacked to find that you could not declare your nationality to be British. Instead, you had to pick English, Northern Irish, Scottish, Welsh or a foreign nationality.
I’m sure that this is just an oversight. But given how much Gordon Brown talks about Britishness and the giant Union flag backdrop at the special Labour conference that elected him leader, it is rather amusing. I’m now considering starting a campaign: British passes for British hacks.
Sadly, the abortion vote last night pretty much split down party lines with 83 percent of Tories in favour of a lower limit and 80 percent of Labour MPs supported the 24 week status quo. It would be a disaster for British politics if abortion was to become a partisan issue—imagine the Commons continually changing the time limit after an election in much the way that US administrations suspend or enact the Mexico City policy. Indeed, my one criticism of the campaign against the 24 week timeframe for so-called ‘social abortions’ is that some of its advocates veered too quickly into partisan language.
But I am hopeful the time limit for ‘social abortions’ will soon come down regardless of which party has a majority in Parliament. Looking at the pictures in the papers today of foetuses—The Mail’s front-page photo of a 23 week old one is particularly arresting—and the medical evidence on both viability and when foetuses begin to feel pain it is hard not to think that the law is going to have to be reformed. Considering that is also what the public appears to want, one feels justified in thinking that this will happen sooner rather than later.
Labour must be hoping that not many people in Crewe and Nantwich decide to watch the evening news tonight. For if they do, what they’ll see is hardly like to encourage them to vote Labour.
The first item, if the BBC website is any guide, is going to be Jacqui Smith being berated by Jan Berry, chair of the Police Federation. With the Home Secretary sitting on the stage, Berry joked about Smith’s past drug use and then absolutely went for her over the government’s failure to backdate the pay rise set by the Police Arbitration Tribunal. She asked who in the Cabinet stood up for police and then denounced the refusal to backdate the deal in headline-grabbing terms:
The politically-timed resolution of the 10p tax deal is going to be quoted back at Labour by every group that wants more government money from now on. If I was a government minister, I’d be keeping a very nervous eye on Sir Richard Dannatt, Chief of the General Staff."It was a breach of faith, a monumental mistake, and you betrayed the police service," she added."How was it the government could find £2.7bn to dig itself out of a hole before a byelection but couldn't find £30m to settle our pay award?"
Daniel Finkelstein highlights this fascinating graph over at Comment Central. The red line represents Labour's opinion poll ratings since 2005; the blue line those of John Major's government between 1992 and 1997. With the exception of a Labour spike during the "Brown bounce", the correlation sure is striking:
An all-English final it may be, but – as an avid Man Utd supporter – I can't help being partisan about this. So, good luck you reds. Bringing the European Cup back to Old Trafford will be the perfect way to commemorate those who lost their lives in the Munich air disaster, fifty years ago. And it will also seal a memorable evening for Ryan Giggs. He looks set to make his 759th appearance for the club, beating Bobby Charlton's record in the process – a remarkable achievement. Ok, so plenty of CoffeeHousers won't want the same outcome as I do tonight, but I'm sure we can unite in admiration of the Welsh Wizard – a model professional, and one of the beautiful game's enduring greats.
The quick, capsule review of today's PMQs: Brown was embarrassing. Cameron tore him apart.
Now for a bit more detail. Cameron led on the humanitarian situation in Burma – the stories coming from that stricken country are getting worse by the day, and the Prime Minister gave his assurances that he's working to increase the amount of aid reaching the ground. Ok, so he doesn't seem to have achieved much so far, but Cameron rightly declined from engaging in political tittle-tattle over it.
Next came Crewe and Nantwich, and Cameron brought it all back to the 10p tax issue. Will Alistair Darling's compensation package only apply for one year? If so, what of the IFS finding that 18 million families will find themselves worse off next year? And this is where Brown bombed. His stock answer to these questions? "We have announced a £2.7 billion package to help 22 million people in this country - will the Tories confirm whether they support it?". So, no answer at all, really - just unadulterated clunk. And as Cameron rightly pointed out it's for the Prime Minister to answer questions here, so the Tory leader was free to deliver his pre-prepared lines: "It's just one tax con followed by another," and the killer:
"The Labour Party will never be taken seriously again as the party of low and middle income earners."
He'll be hoping that gets an airing on the TV news tonight, particularly in the homes of Crewe and Nantwich.
There was yet more on the by-election. Why hasn't Brown visited the constituency? Brown: "it's the tradition that Prime Ministers don't go to by-elections". An opening for Cameron to quote Tony Blair:
"I have never understood the recent convention that Prime Ministers stay away from by-elections. I'm joining the campaign trail, because this by-election matters. I believe in leading from the front"
At which point, I'm sure a few Labour MPs would have recalled the words of the Bard of Whitehall: "In Downing Street upon the stair..."
And that - save for another invisible performance from Nick Clegg - was that.
Courtesy of Politics Home, here's the main exchange between Cameron and Brown in PMQs. Expect the Coffee House take on things shortly.
Like Pete, I have picked up on hesitancy in some parts of Crewe – mainly from Tory activists who realise this is a “send Brown a message” by-election rather than a mandate for Conservatism. But a win is a win – and in Westminster, at least, Tories are expecting a mammoth victory. One Shadow Cabinet member told me his prediction and swore me to secrecy – safe to say, it was a resolutely optimistic one. “Expectations management has gone out of the window” said one senior figure in the campaign.
There’s talk about Brown going into hiding in his constituency over the weekend; of next week’s recess meaning the only political news will be of how bad Brown is and of various plots to get rid of him; of how Milburn and Byers will stoke the weekend press reports, and that it might last until a week on Sunday too. Then – joy of Tory joys – a half-baked mutiny that will leave Brown wounded, angry and dangerous.
I gather David Davis has mixed emotions about this, fearing a slaughter at Crewe would scare Labour MPs into behaving themselves at the 42 days vote which he has been looking forward to for so long. My own feeling remains that it's better for the Tories to lose Crewe if it means keeping Brown, their chief recruiting sergeant, for two more years. But rightly or wrongly, Westminster is braced not just for a Tory victory, but for a Labour massacre
A downloadable podcast of last night's Spectator / Intelligence Squared event - "A conversation with Gore Vidal" - is available here.
Lloyd Evans' web exclusive report on the talk can also be accessed here.
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