Oh dear. It looks as though Alistair Darling's 10p tax con is going to come back to haunt him – and in a major way. As the IFS points out this morning, the fact that he's only increased personal tax allowances for a year – a short-term fix to compensate for the abolition of the 10p tax rate – means that he's “not only created millions of winners this year: he has created millions of potential losers next year”. That's some 18 million potential losers next year – hardly the electorate that the Government wants, with a general election on the horizon.
So, is there any way the Treasury can avoid this? Well, yes. It could keep the tax breaks in place. But, to do that, it would have to find an extra £3 billion a year, at a time when the public finances are already taxed and borrowed to the hilt.
It puts Darling between a rock and a hard place – which will he choose? My guess is that he'll rack up even more debt in order to placate the potential tax losers. After all, this is a government which blew £2.7 billion to attract the votes of constituents in Crewe and Nantwich. I don't think they're beyond playing politics with the public finances again. Besides – as Fraser's pointed out – it would all fit neatly into a programme of scorched-earth policy; leaving things even worse for an incoming Tory government.
Tonight the attempts to reduce the time limit for so-called ‘social abortions’ were defeated. The 22 week amendment lost by 304 to 233, the 20 week one 332 to 190, 16 weeks by 387 to 84 and 12 weeks by 393 to 71.
It is tragic that the attempt to reduce the limit from 24 weeks failed. One does not have to believe that life begins at conception to think that aborting a foetus after six months when the mother’s health is not in danger and there is no risk of a serious handicap is wrong. Even if only a small number of foetuses are viable at 24 weeks, then we should not accept them being aborted except in the most limited circumstances.
That several thousand people in this country have had four or more abortions says that, as a society, we have become far too contemptuous of the human essence of the unborn. Let us hope that the public discussion that the debate in Parliament has sparked marks the beginning of a turning point in society’s attitude.
Over on Americano, some thoughts on today's primaries in Kentucky and Oregon and what it means that by the end of night Obama will, almost certainly, have an absolute majority of pledged delegates.
Today, Teddy Kennedy’s doctors announced that he has a malignant brain tumour. This is sad news. Whatever one thinks of Kennedy’s politics, there’s little doubt that he’s been the most effective legislator in recent US history.
The finest speech Teddy Kennedy has ever given was at the 1980 Democratic convention. Kennedy had unsuccessfully challenged President Carter for the Democratic nomination and lost fairly comfortably but carried his fight all the way to the convention. His address was both beautifully crafted and delivered. Indeed, it was so good that it overshadowed Carter receiving the actual nomination. The peroration, which you can listen to below, was particularly fine.
The latest Spectator / Intelligence Squared event - a conversation with the great American novelist, essayist and playwright Gore Vidal - is under way. To listen to live audio of the event click here.
We all know that there are plenty of knives out for Gordon Brown in the Labour Party. But a detail in this post by Benedict Brogan is still pretty astonishing. He writes of a Labour minister who said he'd like the party to be defeated in Crewe and Nantwich by a Tory landslide, so they can "force the bastard out". Unfortunately, Brogan's "Tory informant" didn't reveal who that minister was. Any guesses?
Adam Boulton & Co. bring us news that Ladbrokes have closed their books on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, because the Tories are "dead cert winners". Of course, this chimes with all the polls we've been reading recently, as well as with the Tory euphoria around Westminster. But are things really that certain? Tories on the ground in Crewe don't think so - one campaign leader there told us there could be "only a few hundred votes in it either way". Watch this space.
As James says, if Labour rack up a double-digit defeat in Crewe and Nantwich, then things might start to look even nastier for Gordon Brown – to the point that he may face a leadership challenge or two. I’m sure Labour will be aware of that, but they’re certainly not saying it. Sam Coates points out over at Red Box that a double-digit defeat is well within the boundaries of what the party is spinning as a “reasonable result”.
It’s clearly a spot of expectation management – take things to their most pessimistic extreme, and then shrug off a heavy defeat as a “good thing”. Problem is, Labour haven’t been too good at managing expectations recently. Remember Tessa Jowell’s prediction that they’d lose 200 seats in the recent local elections? Many laughed that off as overly negative, but it turned out to be not nearly pessimistic enough.
All of which sets up the perfect egg-on-face scenario. If Labour do worse than what they’re calling “reasonable”, then the result for them won’t be bad – it will be disastrous.
Today’s ComRes poll, the weekend one by ICM and reports from the ground have persuaded most of us that the Tories are going to win Crewe and Nantwich. That alone is a sign of how fast events have moved in recent weeks. Just before the local and London elections, the consensus on Coffee House was that there “a very small chance of a Tory victory”.
If Labour do lose, the margin of defeat will be key to Brown’s prospects. A Labour loss by up to four points has already been factored into the Brown share price. So, it would probably not change that much though it would lead to a few more people putting their heads above the parapet. Anything above that and things get interesting. A four to eight point defeat would see a slew of people coming forward with their solutions to save Labour. If Crewe turns into a real thumping with the Tories winning by eight points or more, then talk of a leadership challenge to Brown will not seem as far-fetched as it does today. If the Tory margin extends into double digits, then there is a real chance that someone might be prepared to risk challenging Brown and that people close to him would be prepared to tell him that the game is up, one person who has been in the Brown inner circle since the start is said to be ready to tell the PM he has to step down for the good of the partyin these circumstances. The consolation for Brown is that if Labour does hold Crewe then he’ll have an opportunity to carve out a comeback narrative for himself.
When the High Court turned down the Michael Martin-led attempt to block the disclosure of MPs expenses, the worry was that the Speaker would launch an appeal. Well - by way of an update - Martin & Co. last night decided not to fight the original ruling. The Speaker's comported himself so badly throughout all of this, that this latest move's a welcome surprise. And now we can expect to see full expense details for 14 MPs - including Cameron and Brown - on Friday, with details for all MPs following in October. I wonder whether any are dreading the day.
The Arbutus Hotel in Killarney, Ireland. An historic townhouse/boutique hotel in downtown Killarney. A superb place to base yourself in the leisure, business & conference district of town.
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Oh dear. It looks as though Alistair Darling's 10p tax con is going to come back to haunt him – and in a major way. As the IFS points out this morning, the fact that he's only increased personal tax allowances for a year – a short-term fix to compensate for the abolition of the 10p tax rate – means that he's “not only created millions of winners this year: he has created millions of potential losers next year”. That's some 18 million potential losers next year – hardly the electorate that the Government wants, with a general election on the horizon.
Tonight the attempts to reduce the time limit for so-called ‘social abortions’ were 
Today, Teddy Kennedy’s doctors announced that he has a 
The latest Spectator / Intelligence Squared event - a conversation with the great American novelist, essayist and playwright Gore Vidal - is under way. To listen to live audio of the event 
We all know that there are plenty of knives out for Gordon Brown in the Labour Party. But a detail in 
Adam Boulton & Co. 
As 
Today’s 
When the High Court 
