Status Anxiety

2 May 2009

My trip to Las Vegas has made me think about swine flu and mortality in general

The difficulty presented by both cases is that we don’t have enough information to make a rational decision. How can the risk of catching swine flu be calculated when the rate of infection is still unknown? Even if it was known, that still wouldn’t be enough, since it’s impossible to predict what that rate will be in a week’s time. Similarly, how can we calculate the probability of the economy collapsing when we still don’t know how far-reaching the consequences of toxic debt will be? To quote Donald Rumsfeld: ‘There are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.’

In the case of swine flu, the sensible thing would be to err on the side of caution, particularly as I have four young children. But I’m a bit concerned about applying the precautionary principle across my life. For instance, it might mean I’d have to become a practising Christian. According to Pascal’s Wager, we should all behave as if God exists because even though his existence can’t be proved, the consequences of ignoring the Ten Commandments if he does are completely catastrophic. In other words, even though the likelihood of the worst-case scenario coming about is remote, the cost of taking the necessary precautions is slight compared to the cost of ignoring them, i.e., burning in hell for all eternity.

Then there is my diet. At the moment, I place no limit on the quantity of dietary fat I consume, including saturated fat. Not only is this because I’m unconvinced by the evidence linking dietary fat to the so-called ‘lifestyle diseases’ — cancer, heart disease, stroke, etc — but even if there was, I think the chances of my succumbing to any of these diseases is too small to worry about. But if I’m going to take precautions against catching swine flu, why stop there? Shouldn’t I also change my diet? I’ve given up smoking and cut down my alcohol consumption. Why not give in to the diktats of the health nazis across the board?

The answer, I think, is that a life circumscribed by the precautionary principle would not be worth living. We should no more change our behaviour in response to swine flu than we should stop our children from playing outside for fear that some harm may come to them. Elf and safety inevitably leads to a life of pinched and hidebound timidity. So I’ve made my decision. I’m going to Vegas.

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Toby Young

April 30th, 2009 10:13pm Report this comment

Ironically, a few hours after writing this piece I was knocked off my bicycle and, because I wasn't wearing a helmet, sustained an injury to my forehead that required 21 stitches (see Coffee House). So much for ignoring the precautionary principle.