On the eve of the election, the future of our proposed school hangs in the balance

1 May 2010

Toby Young suffers from Status Anxiety

Ironically, my group might be better off if the Conservatives are some way short of winning a majority. Suppose they win 234 seats, giving them a majority of nine. Would David Cameron be able to count on his own party’s support when it comes to piloting his Great Education Reform Bill through the House of Commons? Or would some Conservative MPs — more than nine — insist on allowing ‘free schools’ to select according to ability as a condition of supporting the Bill? If Cameron conceded that point, all well and good. We want our school to be non-selective, but I can’t imagine any Tory MPs insisting that ‘free schools’ would have to select according to ability. It would just be one option available to them.

But what if he decides to take a stand on this issue? He’s already ruled out the creation of any more grammar schools and even if he wasn’t opposed to them on principle there are pragmatic reasons to consider. Opposition to the ‘free school’ reforms within the educational establishment will be almost insurmountable as it is. Think how much greater it will be if the Tories try to re-introduce grammar schools by the back door. Faced with a potential rebellion along these lines, Cameron might decide to shelve his educational reforms, at least for the time being. Not good news for our group.

Obviously, the best outcome for us would be a thumping Tory majority. Every other result is fraught with risk. But is a small Conservative majority less risky than a hung parliament in which the Tories are the largest single party? Another argument is that a Lib-Con pact of some kind would be unlikely to last. Suppose it held together for three years. Would that be long enough to bring about the necessary reforms? Well, yes, it probably would. After all, the conservative government in Sweden responsible for ushering in the school voucher system only lasted from 1991-94, but the reforms stuck because they proved popular and went on to secure cross-party support. The chances of that happening in Britain are more likely if the Great Education Reform Bill is supported by the Lib Dems from the outset.

Make no mistake — I’ll be ticking the blue box on 6 May. The Conservatives’ manifesto, unlike any other, includes a commitment to helping parents set up ‘free schools’. And the Lib Dems might form a coalition with Labour, not the Tories, making the prospect of a hung parliament absolutely appalling. But a Lib-Con pact would not spell doom for educational reform. It’s just possible it might be a better outcome than a small Conservative majority.