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McCain within touching distance of winning the Republican nomination

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 30th January 2008

John McCain’s victory in Florida combined with the coming endorsement of him from Rudy Giuliani makes McCain the overwhelming favourite to win the Republican nomination. With Giuliani out of the race, McCain should easily win the winner takes all primaries in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as well in his home state of Arizona. He also should do well in California, especially as with Rudy gone he is likely to receive the backing of Arnold Schwarzenegger. While Mitt Romney will find Mike Huckabee’s continuing presence in the race makes it more difficult for him to try and sweep up socially conservative votes.

Romney isn’t dropping out but during his concession speech this evening he seemed particularly dejected as well as he might considering that he ran almost ten times as many Florida TV ads as McCain. He now faces a choice between accepting McCain’s eventual victory or trying to knee cap the most likely nominee of his party. If he tries and fails to take down McCain, he will find himself shut out in the cold.

There is not much time for Romney to make up his mind as the Republicans debate tomorrow night in California. Even if Romney does go after McCain, he faces an obstacle in that Mike Huckabee, who McCain was almost as effusive in his praise for as he was for Rudy Giuliani, will almost certainly come to McCain’s defence.

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steve

January 30th, 2008 7:50am

McCain appears to have extended a hand to Romney, in his victory speech (talking about the pain of disappointment etc) I wonder if I should have a punt on McCain Romney as the Republican ticket, after all I would say that their relative strengths complement each other.

Steve

January 30th, 2008 8:22am

Oops I withdraw my last remark, I misheard the news this morning, (not at my sharpest at 5.30 in the morning) most of Mccains remarks where of course, for others than Romney.

Simon

January 30th, 2008 9:01am

Good news! £50 in the bank already!

Mark

January 30th, 2008 12:07pm

McCain-Huckabee will be the ticket, imo. Does a vp have to be US born? if not, what odds McCain-Arnie?

TGF UKIP

January 30th, 2008 12:59pm

36-31, very close and a very impressive showing by Romney given this had to be a very favourable state for McCain. With a big military presence serving and retired, lots of seniors, a powerful gubernatorial endorsement, and a major presence of GOP Latinos who would be more well disposed to McCain's liberal immigration stance, this had to be an uphill state for Romney. It gives him every incentive to fight on next Tuesday and I think there must now be every chance for the battle going on beyond then. One possibilty, though, is he does a deal with McCain with 2012 in mind. VP to a 72 year old President must represent a good hedge for Romney.

Ian C

January 30th, 2008 1:06pm

If the Republicans have any sense they will all get behind McCain next week so that he is shoe-in and the Hillary/Obama punch-up is seen by as many as possible for what it is - a cat fight!