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Edwards exits stage left, who benefits?

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 30th January 2008

John Edwards’s departure from the presidential race was a surprise. Considering that he didn’t pull out after only receiving four percent support in the Nevada caucuses or coming in third in his native South Carolina it is puzzling he has chosen to do so now especially as there is still a slim chance of a brokered convention where Edwards could have played kingmaker.

It seems that there will be no instant endorsement from Edwards and opinion is divided on who his withdrawal helps most. In my opinion, it is in the short term a boon for Hillary but in the long run will play out to Obama’s advantage.

Edwards was attracting support from the kind of downscale white voters that Obama has had trouble reaching and with him out of the race more of them might go to Hillary. Obama’s problem here is partly stylistic: he looks rich and talks sophisticated. A voter looking at him for the first time would probably think that he is a son a privilege. Obama’s trip to his grandparents’ hometown in Kansas yesterday and his talk about their humble background is an attempt to correct this impression but it will be hard for him to do that in a week and so Hillary might well pick up more of these votes on Super Tuesday.

In the long run, though, Obama probably benefits. Edwards’s departure opens up space on Hillary’s left flank for Obama to take some populist shots which could help him appeal to white males, who are increasingly becoming the key swing group of this contest. Edwards was also acting as a kind of Lib Dem stopping point for those who weren’t prepared to back Hillary but weren’t yet ready to get behind Obama.

One other thing worth watching is how the Clintons approach those politicos who went with Edwards rather than Hillary. Back at the beginning of this contest, the Clintons aggressively tried to clear the field making clear that now was the time to get on the train and if you didn’t you’d be left stranded on the platform forever. Now, that they are in such a close contest it’ll be fascinating to see how much they are prepared to do to mend fences with these people.