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The Battle for the Show Me State

James Forsyth

Saturday, 2nd February 2008

I’m travelling to Missouri tonight which will be one of the crucial contests on both the Republican and Democratic sides on Tuesday with the polls having both races there within the margin of error. Missouri is a key state for Obama, if he can win in this bellwether state—in the general it has gone with the winner every time bar one since 1904—it will prove his appeal in the swing states and that he has the potential to broaden out the Democratic coalition. It will also give him a win in a sizable state as he tries to compensate for Hillary’s likely victories in California and New York.

Obama is helped in Missouri by the endorsement of Claire McCaskill, who won a tight Senate race in 2006, and he is only four points behind Hillary in the latest poll here. The importance attached to the state is demonstrated by the fact that both Obama and Bill Clinton will be there on Saturday.

On the Republican side, a McCain victory here would indicate that he is sweeping Romney. McCain has huge leads in the winner takes all north eastern contests and if he can take states like Missouri as well it would be very hard to see how Romney could cobble together enough delegates on Tuesday to justify continuing.