Michael Henderson suggests

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Why the Super Tuesday races are so volatile

James Forsyth

Tuesday, 5th February 2008

I’ve just got back from Missouri and the key difference between there and the earlier contests is that the campaign in the Show Me State has only been going on for just over a week. In Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and even Florida voters had been courted for months and had far firmer impressions of the candidates and so were more difficult to sway. By contrast, in Missouri and the other 20 odd states voting, the electorate has only just tuned in and so is still shopping around; hence, the wild swings in the polls.

The results on Tuesday night promise to be unpredictable and to drag on into the earlier hours. There is even talk that California might not declare a result until sometime during the day on Wednesday which would make it hard to assess the significance of the night’s results until then. However, if there isn’t a clear winner on Tuesday night that favours Barack Obama who is well placed in the next set of contests.