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What does Huckabee do now?

James Forsyth

Friday, 8th February 2008

With Mike Huckabee and John McCain the only men left standing in the Republican race, Huckabee faces a dilemma. Up to now, Huckabee has been nothing but respectful of McCain; hence all the talk that he is running to be McCain’s VP. But in this new landscape, Huckabee’s best chance of getting on the ticket is to win a bunch of the upcoming contests so that McCain can be prodded into picking him on a unity ticket. The only way he can hope to win in these places is to do some contrast but doing that could alienate the notoriously prickly McCain and cost him a shot at the VP slot. Huckabee has to decide whether he is certain enough in his ability to win, and wants it enough, to go negative on McCain.

The other problem for Huckabee is that he deviates even more than McCain from Republican orthodoxy—he actually raised taxes as governor of Arkansas. On McCain’s biggest weakness with the Republican base—immigration—Huckabee was himself close to McCain’s position until very recently.

My hunch is that Huckabee will stay positive and try and charm his way onto the ticket. Huckabee has two great advantages as a possible VP pick. He would turn out evangelical voters in huge numbers, something that McCain is ill equipped to do. He is also able to attack with wit and without seeming mean—a crucial quality in a VP considering that the Republicans will be running against either a black man or a woman and appearing nasty would be politically toxic to the party’s chances. However, Huckabee also has two great weaknesses. First of all, the party establishment will not be happy with the idea of Huckabee—with all his ideological quirks—as the heir apparent. Secondly, he lacks credibility on national security—a serious problem given that McCain’s age and health problems are going to lead to a bunch of heart beat away from the presidency questions. This last point will likely be a deal breaker. Indeed, it seems most likely that McCain will go the Clinton-Gore route and choose to double down by picking a fellow national security expert as his VP.

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Richard

February 8th, 2008 5:28pm

Ron Paul is still in the race and received more the 20 percent in some states. He was ahead of McCain in Alaska and ahead of both McCain and Huckabee in Montana. Ron Paul currently has more than twice as much cash in hand as McCain: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp?cycle=2008

TGF UKIP

February 8th, 2008 6:10pm

McCain might only need Huckabee to "turn out evangelical voters in huge numbers" in the event that Obama ends up as the Democrat candidate. If it's Hillary, evangelicals will not need "turning out." They will swarm to the polling stations in their millions to keep Slick Willy out of the White House. Also you say James that Huckabee and McCain "are the only men left standing in the Republican race." Have I missed Ron Paul's withdrawal and has he given an undertaking not to do a Ross Perot?

James Forsyth

February 8th, 2008 6:46pm

TGF, Ron Paul can not mathematically win the Republican nomination. I do, though, thinks it is not unlikely that he'll run as a third party candidate.

TGF UKIP

February 8th, 2008 7:26pm

Thanks, James, and for all your great posts in the US. It is surprising that a Ron Paul independent candidacy in November has not even been mentioned let alone discussed in any of the US coverage I have seen on Fox. Is it a cse of "don't mention it and it might not happen"?! I have had a bad feeling for some while about Ron Paul particularly that he might put a Democrat and especially another Clinton into the White House. Surely, now that the issue of the Republican nomination is closing out the Ron Paul question should be getting more media coverage.