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Saturday 6 September 2008

What to look for tonight

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It will be a major shock if Barack Obama and John McCain do not sweep today’s primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Colombia. But the detailed results will give us a steer on some of the key questions of the campaign.

Watch to see if McCain passes the 60 percent mark in Virginia. If he does, it will indicate that the base of the party is rallying to him. If he fails to do this in what is an open primary, it will suggest that he has much work still to do.

On the Democratic side, Obama’s margin is key not only because of the proportional way in which delegates are allocated but because it will determine how the press writes up the story. Obama should win by an absolute landslide in DC and the polls in Maryland and Virginia suggest that he is getting close to 60 percent. If he gets two thirds of the vote in these two contests, as he did in several of those on the weekend, then it will be written up as another sign that ‘the Clinton campaign is collapsing.’

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