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The audacity of expectations setting

James Forsyth

Saturday, 1st March 2008

Austin, Texas

The latest expectations setting memo from the Clinton campaign is a classic of the genre. It lays out how much money Obama is spending and how much time he has spent in the March 4th states and then declares:

“If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there's a problem. Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear:

Democrats, the majority of whom have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date, have their doubts about Senator Obama and are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer.”

So, if Obama wins, albeit narrowly, in the states that the Clintons have long described as their firewall then he is the one with the problem?

The press are, unsurprisingly, not buying the line. What the memo does tell us though is that the Clinton campaign are preparing their argument as to why Hillary should stay in the race even if she loses one of Texas or Ohio--which seems increasingly likely.

But if she is beaten in one of these states then it will become almost mathematically impossible for her to catch Obama in elected delegates. Given the speed with which the super delegates--Hillary’s last hope--are moving towards Obama, it is probably all over for Hillary unless she triumphs in both Texas and Ohio.