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Come November

James Forsyth

Saturday, 1st March 2008

One thing that Hillary Clinton’s new ad did achieve was to put the spotlight back on her contest with Obama. Pundits, always keen to start chattering about the next thing, had begun to focus on the likely McCain – Obama general election match up which was starving the Clinton campaign of oxygen. But there is no getting away from the fact that a McCain – Obama race this autumn is by far the likeliest outcome. Such a race would be fascinating—another reason the pundits are so keen to talk about it—because the electoral map would be vastly expanded by it. Rather than just 5 to 10 battleground states being competitive, we could be talking about a 30 to 40 state contest. As Michael Barone notes in a piece looking at ahead to the fall, neither Obama nor McCain have the traits that have contributed to such a polarised electorate in recent years.

The polls, for what they’re worth at this early point, suggest that Obama has a narrow edge over McCain. Obama can expect to benefit from a spike in both youth and African-American turnout. He will also benefit from the fact that given the enthusiasm he generates his supporters in even the reddest states will turn out for him, forcing McCain to play defence in some unexpected places.

What will encourage the McCain camp is that Obama supporters have more doubts about their candidates than Clinton’s do; there is a chance that buyer’s remorse could kick in before the election. The other, more substantive, piece of good news for McCain is who he and Obama are not winning in their respective primaries. McCain is failing among the most conservative and the most religious parts of the party—in other words, those least likely to cross over and vote Democrat. While Obama is struggling among seniors and downscale white women—both groups who might decide to support McCain, a veteran with a ton of political and national security experience, in significant numbers.