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Could the Republicans--against all the odds--win again?

James Forsyth

Thursday, 13th March 2008

A new NBC / Wall Street Journal poll shows what a miracle it is that the Republicans have a nominee who is competitive in the general. McCain holds both Obama and Clinton to leads within the margin of error despite the Democrats having a 50-37 advantage on a generic presidential ballot, a 48-34 lead on party identification and a 24 percent higher net favourability rating. Yet, still 52 percent of Republican primary voters say they would have preferred someone else.

The internals of the poll provide more encouragement for McCain. He scores more highly than either Obama or Clinton on both the Commander in Chief question and Iraq, showing that if he can turn this into a national security election he will probably win. He also has marginally lower negatives than Obama—27 to 28—and far lower negatives than Hillary, who has a 43 percent negative rating with Bill’s even higher at 45 percent –proof of just how much this campaign has tarnished him.

What must worry McCain is the electorate’s desire for change. Two thirds of voters think America is on the wrong track, 63 percent disapprove of Bush’s job performance and 76 percent want the new president to take a different approach. McCain is going to have to thread the needle in terms of showing conservatives that he is one of them while also putting clear blue water between himslef and the last eight years. At the moment, 29 percent of voters think that McCain will stick very close to Bush’s polices and 48 percent say that he will hew close to them. McCain needs to drive those numbers down by November.

There are two other particularly noteworthy sets of numbers in the poll. 38 percent of Democrats think that a nominee who won thanks to super delegates overturning the will of the elected delegates would be illegitimate and apparently 44 percent of Americans are sexist, 41 percent ageist and 14 percent racist if you think that worrying about a president being a woman, old or black is a sign of prejudice. Somehow I suspect that these numbers tell us more about what prejudices people are prepared to confess to pollsters than anything else.

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Hal

March 14th, 2008 12:03pm

I remain an optimistic Democrat. A recession is upon us here in the US. When is the last time a Republican won the presidency in a recession year? What's more, McCain has confessed that he's only now learning about economics, and what he's learning seems to be to fetishize tax cuts. If Obama is the nominee, he may compete with McCain in a bunch of Western states and states like Virginia that have voted Republican in the past, while holding onto Democratic strongholds such as California and New York. Obama would have to convince white voters that he won't be merely the president of black America, but I think he can do this. McCain strikes me as less likely to engage in the sort of race-baiting that Hillary is doing right now.

Ian C

March 14th, 2008 6:20pm

What you need, I belive, Hal is the White House in one party and Congress the other so that America gets the best solutions to what's coming over the next few years. It is going to be a very difficult time. If I were you guys I would favour a Rep. President with fiscal responsibilty restraining a Dem. Congress with people to look after. And a Dem. Congress ensuring that a Rep. President does not over play the hawkish hand in foreign affairs. That happens to sit well with the personalities on offer - at least I see it from this side of the pond.