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Liz Anderson

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Hillary wins to stay in it

Wednesday, 14th May 2008

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Hillary met the spread in West Virginia, racking up 67 percent of the vote to Obama’s 26. It is an impressive win and should quiet calls for her to get out of the race for a while even if it makes little difference to the eventual outcome. Indeed, this victory will mean nothing unless Hillary can pull off another huge win in Kentucky and, against the odds, hand Obama a significant defeat in Oregon. 

It is normally dangerous to extrapolate from primary results to the general but Obama is clearly going to have trouble in West Virginia in the fall considering that 51 percent of Democratic primary voters there think that Obama shares Reverend Wright’s world view. But Obama can find a way to 270 without West Virginia’s five electoral college votes.


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RMH

May 14th, 2008 12:46pm

Your pro Clinton bias is like that of a small child with a crush on their primary school teacher, so embarrasing.

How about some stories about the number of super delegates BO is leading by, the fact that he has more in nearly every category than here, and in the votes that count too.

RMH

May 14th, 2008 1:33pm

LETS HAVE SOME TALK ON THIS THEN.

New National General Election Numbers

From Quinnipiac University poll:
Obama 47, McCain 40
Clinton 46, McCain 41

Dates conducted: May 8-12. Error margin: 2.4 points.

Trafalgar

May 14th, 2008 3:05pm

RMH. Grow up. James has been accused of being biased towards both Clinton and Obama on this blog (usually by Americans who type in capital letters). Clinton had a good result last night - you may not like it but it's a fact and James is calling things as he sees them.

David Lindsay

May 14th, 2008 4:29pm

Hillary Clinton prefers the backward, misogynistic and brutally repressive Gulf monarchies to the emerging democracy in Iran, with its very high culture and with more women than men at university.

If the Democrats nominate her, then vote for John McCain, who, like the decorated Jacques Chirac, would leave the warmongering to draft dodgers like Bill Clinton and George Bush.

Kevyn Bodman

May 14th, 2008 4:57pm

Impressive win?
It was a walloping.
The super delegates are there to make sure that the party doesn't nominate a candidate who has no chance November; they are there to prevent another McGovern.
And they can change their minds right up to the last minute when the delegate votes are counted at the convention.
So why are so many in the media treating Obama as the de facto nominee?
He is still the favourite, but there is still a real chance his flaws will prevent him from getting the nomination. Have a look at Melanie's latest perceptive piece on Obama's friends. Obama has got significant shortcomings, I don't think he's got a chance in the general election because I don't think his candidacy will stand up to the aggressive examination that will be inevitable.
But will the superdelegates see that, and will they vote for a candidate who has come through, shown how resilient she is, and can win.
Yes, she can!

RMH

May 14th, 2008 5:05pm

Trafalgar, show me some biased articles towards Obama from JF and I will gladly read them.

Ian C

May 14th, 2008 5:56pm

RMH we have regularly been accusing James of having a soft spot for Obama. If your not a Yank you have probably only just started paying attention as they turn into the final straight. With a couple of furlongs to go Obama is in front but has questionable staying power. There is no doubt about Clinton's. If Obama wins the primaries he will be very old news by September and subject to awesome amount of hammer. If you think he can hack it, you proably have not been following long enough to have doubts. For starters read Melanie's piece today and I would have a look at this in TNR online - and some past pieces by John Judis there. http://www.tnr.com:80/toc/story.html?id=331c77bb-9591-422c-aa2b-11a741c6ebb9 there was also one on the elction psychology and race, yesterday. Don't get me wrong, he may do it and it is the Dems. to lose, but it is not going to be a cake walk, for any of the three of them - as many on both sides think.

RMH

May 15th, 2008 9:03am

Ian C - have been following this for a long time.

Though I have been a Spectator reader for shorter than my interest in this race.

I wonder how James will play the Edwards move. I hope he proves you right than his has a twinkle in his eye for Obama....

Ian C

May 15th, 2008 4:12pm

RMH - the Americano blog is going to be the interesting place to be in 2008 as we increasingly cringe for Brown (and hopefully not Boris) on CoffeeHouse. We need more who comment here. Especially Yanks.

My view has been that Obama is dead thanks to Wright - and he should be and clearly is not. But the real action will come in Sept/Oct. That is when US elections are won/lost when there is no far ahead encumbent.

RMH

May 15th, 2008 4:59pm

Ian, I think BO still has a great chance, alot depends on who he chooses at Veep.

I thin McCain has alot of skeletons, and dirty lobbyist ones at that.

Ps am a brit ;-) with a love of US politics, and as for Brown, the man is a pox on society.

Ian C

May 15th, 2008 5:52pm

I had understood that you were not a Yank, RMH - but we would benefit from some interested observers from there if they can be tempted in. Some pop in occasionally. I watch the NYT, WSJ and TNR - so 2 'liberal' and 1 con. in order to get a balance. It surprises me how many TNR comments are anti-Obama even though their editors swing from his underwear. He worries me as a potential protector of the free world.

RMH

May 15th, 2008 10:36pm

Ian - its the balance of who would be the least worst to start with........

McCain will die on the throne and Hilary will do what Bill did, strangle the Dem party at the neck for selfish needs and then allow the Reps to get a refreshed outlook.

Daily Kos is a left wing saloon I enjoying at, and Electoral-vote is a fair place to be stats wise.

Ian C

May 16th, 2008 9:50am

Here is something that cannot rear its head - in spite of Hillary's attempts to warn the Dems.

Ian C

May 16th, 2008 9:50am

Missed it: http://www.slate.com/id/2112318/fr/nl/

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