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The shape of the race to come

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 2nd July 2008

One of Barack Obama’s big advantages right now is his ability to command the news agenda almost at will. The historic nature of his candidacy, his newness and the drama of the Democratic primary contest means has given Obama a distinct edge on this front. Last week, he received twice as much media coverage as McCain thanks in part to his Unity event with Hillary Clinton.

Between now and the end of August, Obama can expect to pull this off a few times. His first campaign swing with Hillary, his first event with Bill, his trip to Europe and the Middle East, his VP pick and—of course—his convention speech are all going to receive road-blocked coverage.

The challenge for McCain is not to get shut out of the race by all this. If he is only down by single figures at the start of the Republican convention then he’ll be decently placed to over-take Obama on the finishing straight; as the Democratic primaries showed there is resistance to the idea of Obama as commander in chief, an issue that normally increases in salience as polling day nears.

If McCain is going to keep Obama in sight then his campaign is going to have top cut out the unforced errors—no more stupid remarks to journalists—and constantly nip at Obama’s heels. It is also going to have to find ways to package policies so that they demand coverage: the $300 million prize for a more efficient electric car battery was a good example of how to do this.

The latest polling average shows Obama almost six points ahead. That is nowhere near an insurmountable lead but it shows that McCain is going to have to run a brilliant come from behind campaign to win this.

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murray

July 2nd, 2008 8:37am

On November 5th, a lot of progressives are going to be echoing the famous line, "but I don't even know anyone who voted for Nixon."

Ian C

July 2nd, 2008 9:44am

The current polls are an effective dead heat at this time in the election cycle. For Obama to win he is going to have to be a long way in front by the end of the conventions.

Being in the media spotlight will bring the disadvantage of overexposure before the convenstions. It is always a feature of US Elections - by August he will have been front page for 18 months.

Then you can bring in the negatives against him:
- Hilary won the post Super Tuesday primaries
- he is not trusted to be C-in-Chief by his own party
- Association with some very extreme and dodgy people
- and the unmentionable, he is black and his wife is an image of all that terrifies white America
- he needs 48% of white blue collar votes across the country to win.

Come sept/Oct this amounts to a substantial disadvanage that has not been realised by the press and populus, has almost definitely been realised by both Dems. and Reps. campaign teams.

The result will depend upon what organisations on the ground in individual states each has. In this Obama has an advantage as this is how he outflanked the Clintons and the Conservative wing of the Reps. is not behind McCain.

He has to turn that into an advantage. If he can do so he will have a clear run on the outside.

I predict another 2000 type result as Obama will be found wanting the further it goes and the Reps. are divided and therefore weak.