McCain gets a break as new poll shows him four points ahead of Obama

David

Watch people blow this 'mole removal' thing way out of proportion. The reality is that if you've had skin cancer in the past, you remove absolutely anything which looks even a little bit iffy. Anyway, good for McCain, and polls like this simply add to my belief that Obama's big speeches are only appealing to the already converted.

benjamin

Well, I am quite confused as to how someone who is willing to believe McCain gained ten points in one month is allowed to cover US politics for this magazine.
First of all, Obama is still up in the registered voters sample.
The reason mcCain gained so much in the likely voter sample as to be in front is because ... they changed the sample and the way they calculate who is likely to vote.
But of course figuring that out would be too hard to ask of a serious journalist

Austin Barry

Obama's supercilious, strutting, self-regarding persona is never ever going to appeal to Joe Paycheck and his suds-drinking buddies in fly-over America. Obama may be the wet dream of hand-wringing, bleeding hearts in the cappuccino redoubts on the coasts and with the brothers in the ghettos, but everwhere else he is just a novelty to gaze upon until November. If he is to have any chance Obama has to ditch his obnoxious Second Coming superiority: but he won't and will remain just what he is: a sleek, inexperienced chancer with a past inextricably linked to Tony Rezko the former social housing and, allegedly, kick-back czar of Chicago.

Familiar Clown

Maybe the mole removal will produce a scar of character, not quite up to Heidelberg University standards, but nevertheless enough to steal the show from wet-behind-the-ears Obama.

Verity

Benjamin, your wee mannie never had much traction except among novelty-seekers and race deniers. Obama's background is unusual, to put it courteously. His political record may be rather too exciting for some voters.

Probably sleeping through, on camera, a debate on national security once he managed to make it into the United States Congress would count against him. You'd have thought he could have stayed awake for a few months.

The Happy Carbon Footprint

Gosh, quelle surprise! The MSM, who are swooning over the arrogant, ignorant empty suit are not mirroring - or reporting on - the actual news.

I'm shocked. Shocked.

Obama is not regarded as serious except among a cadre of precious, noisy liberals and the MSM. Don't hold your breath for Obama getting the ticket.

Verity

Benjamin writes: "The reason mcCain gained so much in the likely voter sample as to be in front is because ... they changed the sample and the way they calculate who is likely to vote."

But of course!

Benjamin writes: "But of course figuring that out would be too hard to ask of a serious journalist."

Even given your angry grammar, I think I can understand what you mean. There, there. Your boy's a limp rag. All hat and no cattle. He's not going anywhere.

THX1138

James cherry picking those polls again.

The maths don't work on this poll

"How do you get from a 47-44 Obama lead among RVs to a 49-45 McCain lead among LVs?

A few quick calculations shows how. You have 900 RVs and 791 LVs, so that means that among your 109 UVs (that's unlikely voters according to Gallup) Obama leads McCain by a whopping 61% to 7%.

Putting it another way, according to Gallup 16% of registered Obama supporters are unlikely to vote compared with only 2% of registered McCain supporters.

Whatever one thinks about likely voter models in general, the mathematics of this particular implementation defy credulity.

The trend is all Obama do you want me to post a poll?

Stuart

McCain has got plenty of time to solidify a lead, especially as the voters appear not to have made up their minds about Obama.

In 1988 Dukakis was 10 points ahead of Bush Senior at this point, a lead which stretched to 17 points after the Democratic convention. It was only around Labor Day that Bush finally pulled ahead.

Ian C

Readers will be interested in this:

http://www.tnr.com/toc/story.html?id=6e9f4a42-9540-4d99-aba2-25adc276c25d

for part of the explanation. His trip abroad was bad for him and his press people are pissing off the press.

As I have said before the over-exposure pills Obama has been taking are beginning to work.

Ian C

It gets worse by the minute for Obama:-

"Mr. Obama's attempt to link European security commitments to American tax cuts was the kind of "unilateral" political faux pas that won't make European defense burden-sharing any more likely."

What was that about a lack of experience? Right on cue.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121728656509891259.html?mod=djemITP

Old Hack

Did Obama really think showboating in Europe was going to win him votes in red states where they hold certain European governments, namely those of Germany and France in almost as much contempt as Al Qaeda?
This was liberal posturing at its worst. No wonder its backfiring. Now if McCain can appeal to Hillary supporters....

Hal

Adam Nagourney in the NY Times had a pretty good column on Why Is Obama Not Further Ahead? This especially struck me:

“It took a long while for the American public to test and look at Ronald Reagan before they were willing to go with him,” Mr. [Peter] Hart said. “And then, when the dam broke open, it broke open very, very wide.”

People think they know McCain (often this is wrong, but it's there), whereas Obama is still an unknown to many. Reagan in 1980 was decried as a lightweight -- an actor for president? and not even a good actor? -- but he closed the deal late in the campaign.

No one knows how 2008 will play out, but that's one scenario that seems plausible to me. I would not assume that McCain will climb late in the race; the opposite may be true, as Obama is the challenger.

Verity

Obama's following among black voters is limited mainly to the successful and aspirational classes. The welfare section has always been committed to Hillary because she was going to give them yet more free things and didn't get them all confused by talking about foreign policy. They don't relate to Mr Slick 'n Wonderful.

Obama's black following is among the professional and aspirational classes - a not inconsiderable number of people to be sure, but also intelligent and worldly enough to become disenchanted at some point. And, of course, the white, liberal bleeding hearts contingent who are absolutely dying to vote for a black president. They would vote for any black running.

My guess, the welfare class will figure it doesn't have a dog in this hunt and won't bother to turn out to vote.

Re Mexican Americans, the successful ones, of whom there are many, vote Rep. Mexicans with jobs, looking to the future for their children, are a rather conservative, religious-oriented bunch. I don't see the peons taking to Mr Slick African.

My guess is, there will be a huge tranche of natural Dem voters not shifting from in front of the telly on voting day.

My prediction, the hemhorrage will start to become apparent at the end of August, beginning September.

THX1138

Verity I can't see how you could be more wrong on Black & Hispanic voters

Obama is polling the following from Gallup:

As of 27 July

Black voters Obama 91% McCain 3%

Hispanic Obama 68% McCain 20%

These numbers are very firm & improving

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

Agreed this poll doesn't split out Mexican Americans but can they be so different form Hspanic voters in general, they must make up a significant majority of the Hispanic vote anyway

More worrying for McCain is that Hispanic vote has moved against him by 10% in the last week of polling & 60% of Hispanics live in purple in play states

I find it very hard to believe that 93% of blacks are among the "professional and aspirational classes". All blacks from whatever class are going to vote for Obama

If blacks come out in higher numbers to support a black candidate it has been calculated that for every 10% increase in black turnout is worth 13 electoral college votes & Team Obama has been working very hard on black voter registration drives. Obama knows a lot about these efforts having cut his political teeth in poor black voter registration drives in Chicago to great effect.

Of course he can take the bleeding heart white latte liberal vote for granted.

THX1138

Old Hack- What does it matter he ain't going to win those red states anyway, perhaps that's why they are called red states.

It's the purple states that count.

Ganpat Ram

I have always thought McCain has an excellent chance provided he hits Obama mercilessly on his Black Power background and general extreme Michael Moore-like stands.

But I have also said McCain has to move to the center on economic issues and win the support of the working class by being a credible defender of their jobs and houses in bad economic times.

McCain is beginning to hit Obama on his extreme Michael Moore attitudes - but he has still to put in place the economic component to close the deal with the US public.

Obama? I think he may now seriously be thinking of taking on Hillary as his VP.

Verity

Number Plate - It doesn't matter what people say when questioned for a poll, because in matters such as this, with a café au lait contender, many people inexplicably try to sound liberal to impress the pollster.

The welfare blacks, mark my words, will not shift from their couches, TVs and their buckets of Kentucky Fried Chicked to vote for Obama. They are the Hillary voters who would have turned out for her in droves.

Obama, in trying to position himself, laughably, as a world statesman, has lost these people.

The black professionals, top managerial level, successful business owners and independently wealthy will vote for Obama.

The Mexican voter is a self-reliant, family-oriented, conservative individual. He/she will - in the main - vote for the Republicans. He/she is looking for stabilty, not change they can believe in.

I read yesterday that Obama's tiny bounce from his laughable tour of the Middle East, Europe and Britain has already evaporated.

Ganpat, who thinks Obama may be seriously thinking of putting Hillary on the ticket - not a chance. He knows that she and Bill are seasoned, slick, clever politicians and they would eat his lunch. They'd be running the White House in under one year. There is no way Obama - who's a chancer, but not that much of a chancer - is going to choose Hillary.

If he gets the nomination.

THX1138

Verity- You're entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts & the facts are Black & Hispanic voters massively prefer Obama over McCain, now you may not like that but it is a fact.

If it "doesn't matter what people say when questioned for a poll" why then do you go on to say

"I read yesterday that Obama's tiny bounce from his laughable tour of the Middle East, Europe and Britain has already evaporated."

Where did that come from? A poll perhaps. BTW it' also not true.

Verity

Number Plate - Where did what I wrote come from? It was all over the papers.

All the gushing admirers of St Obama of The Empty Suit And The Crowded Ego continue to cheeerlead for their dreamboat without a shred of evidence that he isn't failing.

As I said, his truly committed adherents - middle class black people and students and retro-hippies, their pony tails now thin and grey, will stick with Obama to the bitter end.

For everyone else, the novelty's wearing off and he's becoming a bit of a pain in the ego.

Anyone who sneers that blue collar workers "cling to their guns and their religion" is not going to get the vote of blue collar whites or Hispanics. Middle class Hispanics are middle-of-the-road conservative voters. That's why Mexico itself is on its third consecutive conservative administration. Prospering people like conservative policies and conservative lifestyles.

Having a brother who lives in the US does not give you any special insight. You're still an outsider.

THX1138

Verity-You're right I have no special insight, I do spend a lot of time in the US for 4 to 6 weeks in LA most summers & of course I read the blogs & the US MSM & well remembered my brother does live there, I visit him when I can & we speak all the time on Skype. I also speak with other US friends from Chicago , LA & NYC so I probably have a bit more insight than most Brits.

My little brother THX1139 lives in Tulsa OK the buckle on the bible belt perhaps the reddest state of the lot & he tells me that although most people are for McCain it's not with the same fervour as a normal GOP candidate & he has never seen so many Dem/Obama yard signs far more than for Kerry.

The GOP Smear that Obama is eltist is frankly ridiculous Barack & Michelle both came from firmly blue collar backgrounds, Michelle's dad was a dustmen for goodness sake. John & Cindy both come very privileged background, Cindy is the heiress to a huge brewing business & spends embarrassingly large amounts on her credit cards.

Personally I want the president of the USA to be as elite as possible not some ordinary Joe.

I think that it will be close but that ultimately Obama will prevail his supporters are more fervent & his support is deeper; the economy is in mess & the GOP are getting the blame & most people hate the war.

I read good piece the the outsider Regan was in exactly this position as Obama it' can take a while for the public to come round to such a different candidate as Obama.

I stick to my point that Blacks & Hispanics are overwhelmingly in favour of Obama, now you maybe right that poor blacks might not get off the sofa to vote but if they do put down there KFC mega buckets & get down the polling stations it might very well tip the balance, after all when else will they get a chance to put a black man in the White house.

Verity

Number Plate - Your star struck obsession with "America" because you live a couple of weeks a year in LA is awfully naive. And?

Try living in the United States as a legal immigrant and seeing your deductions going into mad "healthcare plans" for people who have never worked a day in their lives,plus illegal "immigrants".

In any event, my prediction about the end of August for the end of Obama was clearly conservative. It's started to happen: "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/2475829/US-election-Senator-Barack-Obama-faces-backlash-in-American-media.html

It will get worse for your clapped out little Messiah, because the Americans are more sophisticated voters than the British who let Blair in.

Your hero's history. And there's still a long run-up to November.

Do you think he will be the candidate?

My guess, for the record: they will not be seen dumping a "black" (as advertised) guy. They'll run Obama.

Yipppeeeeeeeeee!

Verity

Number Plate writes: "now you maybe right that poor blacks might not get off the sofa to vote but if they do put down there [sic] KFC mega buckets & get down the polling stations it might very well tip the balance,[sic] after all when else will they get a chance to put a black man in the White house.[sic]"

Stop trying to write in American terms. It chills he spine.

You're not American and you're tone deaf.

Are you honest-to-God so naive that you think that American fourth-generation welfare recipients are looking to put "a black man in the White House"?

What? They're looking at defending their couch.

Do you think they give a crap who's handing out the free money? Have you ever encountered any of these people?

THX1138

Verity-Why do you always have to get so personal I believe that my comments we aimed at the arguments not you personally yet I get a heap of personal invective.

Your comments dripping with disdain do you know favours you sound bitter, hateful & a bit sad I was hoping for a good old argument but you don't seem to be able to get beyond your rage. Have a nice day.

Verity

Number Plate - Defensive men love to throw the word "bitter" at women posters who best them. I don't have a dog in this hunt. I have nothing to be "bitter" about.

I don't "hate" Obama. I regard him the same way as I regard Tony Blair, an ego-serving chancer and very dangerous. I also, from my years of having lived in the United States, working and paying my taxes and having all American friends, judge that the novelty is wearing off Obama and he's beginning to show his tarnish.

I don't believe I've read any of your comments where you accuse a male adversary of being "bitter" and "hateful" and "full of rage". But you have talked to other women in this tenor. In other words, arguing a political point is a man's job.

THX1138

Verity I'm sorry if you thought that my reply to you was based on gender it really wasn't meant to be but looking back to quote myself it just looks "angry & sad "& I do apologise if you took any offence I will think harder about my reply's to you in future.

You're a powerful adversary & we do seem to have diametrically opposite world views (apart from perhaps a love of the USA) & without sounding too wooly why don't we all turn over a new leaf & just argue about the subject in hand & keep the personal stuff out of it. I'm sure it would make for much better debates -What do you say?