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A polling health warning

James Forsyth

Tuesday, 29th July 2008

NBC's First Read issues a much-needed reminder not to exaggerate the importance of any single poll:

Gallup, Gallup, Gallup: As many readers know, we're not fans of the Gallup tracking poll and yesterday was more proof why. Gallup has two samples out -- one (the daily tracking) with Obama up eight points and another (conducted for USA Today) with McCain up four points among likely voters and with Obama up three among registered voters. Somehow, technically, one can claim this all falls inside the various margins of error. But it's results like these that should remind us that even good pollsters are struggling to poll this year. This isn't an easy time for a pollster. The Gallup folks are in the charge of the best brand there is in public opinion research. So if they are getting screwy results, that should make you suspect of a lot of results you see, particularly on the state level by folks who claim to be pollsters but haven't been doing this for very long.

The one thing I would add, at the risk of sounding rather post-modern, is that even if they aren't accurate polls matter as--for good or ill--they influence the way the media cover the race. So, yesterday's Gallup poll showing McCain ahead is important even if it turns out to be a rogue as it won the McCain campaign some breathing space and stopped the rush to put it on the critical list.

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THX1138

July 29th, 2008 11:12pm

I do agree that we all getting poll mania, me especially but hey what can you do. This election is just so much fun I just want to soak myself & absorb everything about it & polls are always going to be a big part of it

Verity -if Obama goes for Kaine a staunch catholic & spanish speaker that swing the Hispanic vote even more soundly into the Obama column, don't you think?

TGF UKIP

July 29th, 2008 11:14pm

James, it was interesting to see on FNS a whole batch of polls showing considerable progress by MCain in the week of the european and media Obama lovefest.

Now those polls may be right or wrong but their timing is important and the message they will convey to US voters is that a whole lot of other Americans besides them feel queasy over the conduct of Obama and his media entourage.

If, and it's a huge IF, Old John doesn't shoot himself too seriously in the foot with some daft remark or policy, this week could mark a huge turning point in the campaign.

His campaign does, though, still feel too Bob Doleish

THX1138

July 30th, 2008 8:31am

TGF-Your clutching at straws the electoral college vote projections have remained pretty stable for Obama over the last few weeks whatever the odd poll might say

This is the best site to follow the action

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

July 29

Obama 292 McCain 195 Ties 51

Ahhh those bloody polls again.