Why Obama shouldn't pick a foreign policy expert as his running mate

The Happy Carbon Footprint

Is that the real Presidential seal, or the fake that Obama had made up for his lectern?

Andrew Zalotocky

He may have no choice but to pick Hillary Clinton. Some of her supporters were very angry at how she got sidelined in favour of someone younger and more glamorous, and may abstain or even vote Republican. Now that Obama is in a dead heat with McCain he can't afford to lose any potential Democratic voters, so he will probably have to offer Clinton whatever it takes to get her (and her supporters) fully on board. In theory Clinton could still try to win the nomination at the Convention, but if she succeeded she would go into the Presidential election with half of her own party raging against her. If she failed, she would still risk splitting the party and would destroy any chance she might have of becoming the candidate in 2012 or 2016.

They must both understand these facts, so a deal has probably already been done. But the Democrats also need to get as big a "bounce" in the polls from their Convention as possible. One way to do that is to choreograph a dramatic, emotional reconciliation between Obama and Clinton at the Convention, culminating in the formal announcement of an Obama-Clinton ticket. The American media would love the drama, ensuring lots of coverage, and since the MSM leans strongly Democratic many journalists would hype the O-C ticket to the skies as the dream ticket to save the nation.

It's not an outcome that either Clinton or Obama would really have wanted, but in the current situation the Odd Couple ticket is the best option available to them.

Verity

Andrew Zalotocky - Not a chance.

Obama would not dare have Hillary (and Bill) on the ticket. They would eat his lunch and he is feral enough to know this. Within one year they would be running the White House and giving him his orders.

An entertaining scenario, but will not happen.

Michael St George

Andrew

Much as though I appreciate the logic, I think Verity is right on this one.

I can't imagine anything more guaranteed to galvanise the Republican vote that is currently a bit ambivalent about McCain than the prospect of the Ghastly Couple back in the saddle - because that is undoubtedly where they would be.

Also, just think of the all the negative campaigning opportunities which that ticket would afford the GOP- surely even Obama, callow, superficial and insubstantial though he is, wouldn't be so naive as to fall for that?

albert, son of a gypsy

I have a dear friend in the USA who is running for Congress. She happens to be black and she and her colleagues truly believe that Clinton and her supporters will try and possibly get the nomination at the Convention!

She tells me that under those circumstances Obama will stand as a Independent Democrat and will have the financial backing so to do!

It is going to be a very interesting week.

Verity

Albert, Why do you think Hillary has been so quiet? You think she has given up?

The nomination is by no means wrapped up for Obama. He can run as an independent if he likes, but all the Dems who won't vote for him as the Democratic nominee also won't vote for him as an independent. He has absolutely nothing to offer. No experience of governance, no record in the Congrss of voting for anything except a particularly grisly abortion bill, Other than that, his recorded vote has been "Present" - and he displays chilling ineptitude in discussions of foreign affairs. He also lied in public about being on the prestigious House Banking Committee. He had a fake Presidential seal made lup for his lectern until he was told to remove it. He's not going anywhere. The novelty's gone. The cracks are widening.

The Dems know that if Obama got it, all the Republicans who don't really warm to Mr McCain would turn out and vote for him anyway to keep loose cannon Obama out of the White House.

I don't like her obsession with socialised medical care, but Hillary has a cool head and is not going to do anything crazy on the international front.

If Hillary gets the nomination, those Republicans will stay home and Hillary will walk it.

If Obama, in outrage, stands as an independent, he will split the Democratic vote and McCain will walk it.

Keeneye

If handling foreign policy and security matters are outsourced by the President to the Vice-President, the VP gets a chance to manipulate policies without any accountability. Obama is intelligent enough not to entrust his VP with too much clout in policy matters.

James

Hillary as VP. As John Wayne used to say: "That'll be the day."

Richard Littlejohn explains why here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1045090/Obama-President-Dont-count-chickens.html

Hillary, indeed!

The Shadow Chocolate Orange Inspector

Obama's not intelligent at all. Or not above average. He is cunning and feral, as is Tony Blair, but neither of them has a lot of wattage.

TGF UKIP

V. interesting post, Albert.I have been convinced right the way through that the Clintons will have been digging away into Obama's and Michelle's pasts (BTW is Michelle the black Hillary?) and that sooner or later they would find the smoking gun either in Chicago or Harvard.

With 9 days to go , I am still expecting "the revelation" to appear probably via Drudge. Could be any day now though I would favour next Friday/weekend.

In any event, I am not altogether sure that a major "revelation" will be absolutely necessary. This is, after all, US politics so just how "pledged" is pleged among all those Obama delegates?

So far as the next step is then concerned I am unsure what the convention procedure is but now that they have secured that Hiilary will be placed in nomination, presumably all they need do is set up the clamour for "roll call" and rely on Hillary's already pledged delegates plus those detached from Obama by the "revelation" or their skulduggery amongst the delegations Am, I right on this procedure matter, James?

BTW Verity, while I usually find myself in agreement with you on such matters, will Republicans, especially Christians and Evangelicals, really stay home rather than vote for McCain if Hillary does end up as the nominee. I would have thought they would rather vote for Beelzebub than see the Abominable Couple again sully the White House.

Verity

TGI UPIK - "BTW Verity, while I usually find myself in agreement with you on such matters, will Republicans, especially Christians and Evangelicals, really stay home rather than vote for McCain if Hillary does end up as the nominee."

No. And this "evangelicals" is a lefty construct. CODE WORD: CRAZY. I lived and worked in the US - in the SOUTH - and I never met or ran across an "evangelical". I'm sure they are a presence, but I never met one. There was a girl in our office who didn't want to join us for Friday after-work drinks. But she had no opinion about whether the rest of us should go. I guess she was what you might call a "fundamentalist Christian". She was in a hurry to get home to her children instead of a cocktail bar, but she seemed to be indifferent to what the rest of us did.

The left is working towards making Christianty into some weird sect rather than the biggest religious force in the world. Good luck! They are vicious.

And "Christians"??? Hillary's a Christian.

I lived in the United States and I never came across one of these seemingly blanket evangelicals. I'm sure they exist and are probably noisy, but you people in Britain take your information from the BBC and the lefty British press, or America wannabees, including this site and silly little attempts to get Westminster Village renominated "inside the Beltway" by James Forsythe.

Assuming I am vaguely following your thought: if Obama gets the nomination, which he won't, of course Republicans would surge out to vote against him because he is toxic for America and the world.

IF HILLARY were nominated, Republicans who feel lukewarm about McCain would probably not bother voting. She would prevail by default. No one is scared witless by Hillary.

If Obama got named the Democratic nominee, Republicans of all political intensities would surge out to the ballot box to stop him.

American voters are very sophisticated. Way ahead of what sluiced Tony Blair in.

I apologise if I didn't quite get your point, TGF UKIP.

yara

Obama has to make sure that he can find someone with foreign policy credentials because if he doesn't do it could be really bad for his political career.

Yara
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