Stopping the Russian domino

Henry Rogers

I rather doubt that the EU will have much effect on what happens, however much it talks about things.

I think that if I happened to be an inhabitant of a disputed area who didn't want to be Georgian or Kosavan etc I might be less than enthusiastic about EU proposals.

Since, fortunately, the EU has no military power, all it can do is talk. If we are lucky it never will have the military means to enforce its will. One may be forgiven for fearing that recalcitrant member states might be at greater risk of experiencing that enforcement than anone else.

Russia has undoubtedly been brutal and heavy handed, but that doesn't necessarily mean that its cause is unjust.

Max Kaye

Howabout the authors suggest that the EU first applies its lessons in democracy to the citizens of its own member states by allowing them a say on the Lisbon (aka Constitutional) Treaty? (Only the Irish have been asked).

Secondly, when it push comes to shove, the EU has absolutely zero leverage. What is it going to do - refuse to buy Russian oil and gas?

For a more realistic perspective read the aptly-titled Don't pick a fight you can't finish, Mr Miliband" in today's edition of The Times.

Dave

"It should also push for an international peacekeeping mandate in Georgia’s secessionist regions, and take the lead in the post-conflict reconstruction effort."

I'm glad you said international and not EU peacekeepers. If there's the remotest chance of bullets being fired the EU will find every possible excuse to keep the troops in their comfy barracks.

Further, the EU will only spend money on reconstruction if they can get something in return. This generally means something for France and Germany - the other member states just contribute cash and materiel.

Bill Corr

So Daniel Korski and his chums have thought up a clever new way of spending EU tapayers' money, have they ? An international peacekeeping mandate in the Caucasus! What a spiffing idea !

Wars are fought with slick propaganda as well as weapons; the adroit Georgians have succeeded in portraying themselves as wronged innocents in a bloody mess which is a consequence of their political leadership's crass folly. The facts are plain enough and not difficult to establish by looking on the Internet for an hour or two but the British and US MSM is in Russophobic mood and idle and ignorant Western journalists are proving as gullibly eager to swallow slickly professional propaganda in this conflict as they were in the conflicts in Bosnia and Kosova.

Even the most trusting Spectator reader recognises the untrustworthiness of a leader who stands in front of the EU flag without the slightest justification for this. Or did the duplicitous Geoorgians hope that innocent Western audiences would assume Georgia was already in the EU ?

Hysteria

um - if we are convinced EU troops will stay in barracks - what are they actually FOR?

thomas

That's a pathetic set of responses, and it shows why the EU federalists are doomed to fail.

Russia is threatening it's neighbours and the EU's idea is to set up an international board of enquiry. And will the Russians care what that board says? No. And will they let international peacekeepers into Georgia? No. Besides which, have you not noticed that Russia has recognized the Georgian regions independence? Do you really think they are going to allow the EU to start reconstruction efforts in South Ossetia?

The idea of Ukrainian membership of the EU is laughable. The Russians couldn't care less; in fact they'll use it as a reason to annex the Ukraine, as proof of Western encroachment on their area.

They will be free to do that because the EU does not have a military deterrent. The shocking thing is that as someone who has, on these very boards, argued for EU military integration, you have not used the opportunity to further those aims. One can only conclude that you are, like all europhiles, lost in your dreams of a post-conflict, post-nationalistic world.

If Russia pushes this issue, the EU will not respond with force. Putin is well aware of this. Consequently, he could not care less what strong words you have for him. He will have to think twice if the USA or NATO (essentially the USA and Britain) are prepared to put boots on the ground.

Ron

The West gives Kosovo independence. Breaching Serbian territorial integrity. Now Russia is doing the same the West is crying.

Stop these double standards please!!

mac

"My two colleagues Andrew Wilson and Nicu Popescu ... have both made a life out of studying Russia and its neighbourhood". Perhaps they should also have devoted some time considering the propensity of western European nations to talk, earnestly wring their hands and then expect the US to take the lead when something more than talk is expected. Ah, but the US isn't in the EU, is it? The EU will do nothing, not least because of the economic consequences of provoking Russia.

Anglica

euSSR summit? sarko? Surely a contradiction in terms?
It reminds be of that bit in Paradise Lost, when the crew were headlong in their rush to...

Henry Rogers

Just a thought, does the phrase "Europe's finest diplomatic minds" actually mean anything except that Mr Korski approves of them? Clever minds they may be but, what guarantee have we that they are likely to propose anything which electorates in european countries would be prepared to vote for, or in the last resort, send their sons and their daughters to die for?

seb

Muslim Albanians in Kosovo province arrogantly misruled by Orthodox Christian Serbs. Of course, Ron, just the sort of status quo the West ought to have helped maintain so that, when the bloodbath such insoluble ethnic conflicts tend to bring about happened, it would have been even worse that what did transpire. How sad that the world's statesmen do not avail themselves of the fabulous wisdom of people who contribute their tuppence worth of wisdom to Have Your Say sites like this. There'd never ever be any strife anywhere in the world ever again.

Henry Rogers

Seb,

You are certainly right that muslim parts of Kosovo were arrogantly ruled, and latterly cruelly treated, by christian Serbs. Surely the problem is that there are also parts of Kosovo which are inhabited mainly by christian Serbs who have no desire to be ruled arrogantly, etc. Redrawing boundaries to fit in with the needs of the people live in a place doesn't seem a bad idea. In Georgia too!

You seem uncomfortable with the idea that non-elite members of society are allowed to have their say on sites like this. Members of a society who aren't prepared to play their part in discussing moral and political issues can't really complain when the 'great and the good' land them in the deep and sticky, which has happened often enough. The sad thing is that 'the World's statesmen' are human too, just like the rest of us, and don't have a marvellous record of preserving society from harm.

You don't have a duty to agree with Ron. But denying his right to object to double standards, on the grounds that others know better, seems an odd point of view to take in a forum where none of us are well placed to adjudicate on each other's credentials.

seb

The redrawing of the borders of states is, in most instances, a good thing. Fewer empires, more nations.
Independence ought not to be in the gift either of 'the West' or Russia. Mention of double standards, to me, seems to imply that some chess game is taking place between the Russians and their Serb allies and the West in which all that matters is the cynical observance of the correct rules.

The US has learnt to put up with Cuba and the Castro Brothers, not to mention Hugo Chavez a tad further away. Perhaps 142 million Russians and their leaders can come to some similar accommodation with four million Georgians that does not involve shelling blocks of flats. This is not of course a prescriptive solution. I hope that at least it is not trite.