The result: No overall control

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'A new dawn has broken,' said Eric Pickles, the Tories' local government spokesman, just after 5:20. Oh no it hasn't, Eric. Hovering around 41 per cent, with patchy gains in the North West, the Tories had a respectable night in the English local elections. But, at this point, Labour seems to have improved slightly upon its 2006 showing of 26 per cent: nothing to be proud of, naturally, but not the meltdown for the governing party that would have triggered a serious leadership challenge to Gordon Brown if there had been a serious leadership challenger left to mount it. David Cameron had a perfectly satisfying night. But he will be concerned that the reviving Tory Party - and it is reviving - could not make greater gains outside its southern heartlands or increase its share of the national vote. There is no 'sea change' of the sort identified by Jim Callaghan as he fell to Margaret Thatcher in 1979 - or indeed the 'new dawn' hailed by Tony Blair on May 2, 1997.

That said, the picture in Scotland is not yet clear enough for Gordon Brown to crack open the sparkling water. Indeed - thus far - the story in Scotland has been one of administrative disaster rather than political change: faulty computers, spoilt ballots and baffling voting papers. The words 'hanging chads' spring  inexorably to mind. Has Mr Brown pulled off a triumph of expectation management and 'saved the Union'? Or has Alex Salmond humiliated the next Labour leader and PM even before he moves into Number Ten? We won't know for hours. But at 6:09, looking at the great political chessboard, one is drawn to that resonant phrase of local elections: 'No Overall Control'.