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Wednesday, 9th April 2008

Five steps to denial

Fraser Nelson 8:59am

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Here is Gordon Brown’s five-step plan to escape blame for the credit crunch.

1) Blame America for the credit crunch, present Britain as the innocent victim of a global storm.

2) With a straight face, claim the economy is well-placed to withstand the crunch, even though the UK household debt/income ratio is the highest in the G7.

3) Present a fake narrative of the early 1990s, and compare it with equally fake stats about how good things are now.

4) Point to Bank of England rate cut as proof you are helping (even though, by making the BoE independent, no honest politician can claim credit/blame for its decisions).

5) Encourage journalists to blame lenders for “failure” to pass on rate cuts.

The BoE will doubtless cut rates tomorrow and I wouldn’t put it past Brown to call on mortgage lenders to “pass on” the cut – implying their lending has become cheaper by the same degree. This will be a Brownie for three reasons. First, mortgage rates are dictated by interbank borrowing rates (Libor) which have become detached form the base rates (see this post). Next, banks obviously need to re-price mortgages for the risk of a falling house market, building in higher margin. Would you lend a bloke £200k for a house that may be worth £150k this time next year? Finally, Britain’s market mortgage is very competitive – too competitive, one may argue, forcing them to outbid each other in a search for market share thereby creating the easy money era which begat the house price bubble under Brown’s framework. It remains competitive today. See the FT’s splash telling us that HSBC will bail us all out by renewing all fixed-rate mortgages at borrower’s exiting rate (subject to an unspecified fee).

So blame the banks? No, Prime Minister. Their fruit machine-style loans for the last ten years have created all this borrowed cash which Brown first taxed, then mislabelled “stability”. If they’re becoming more risk averse now, it’s about time. In the end, one person can be blamed more than anyone else for this. The person who as Chancellor oversaw this credit bubble for the last ten years and instructed the Bank of England to look the other way. Andrew Pierce put it beautifully on LBC radio last week. “If there are chickens are coming home to roost, well we know whose chickens they are.”

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Comments

Andrew

April 9th, 2008 9:26am

The snag is that they require the borrower to have 20% equity in the property. In other words the very well funded HSBC is pinching the best customers from their rivals with greater capital constraints! No doubt helps the economy to some extent but doesn't help the most vulnerable mortgage borrowers (in Labour constituencies?) with little equity and high income gearing and will pile the pressure on to the likes of HBOS, Bradford & Bingley and Alliance & Leicester who will find it hard to respond.

Jan

April 9th, 2008 10:09am

Is not part of the problem that ever higher government borrowing squeezes out the amount of money available for others to borrow? If I were an investor or bank with money to invest, I would be far more likely to buy government backed bonds than lend to people wanting mortgages in what appears to be a falling house price market. Increased government borrowing in a credit crunch would therefore appear to have the inevitable effect of marking it harder (or more expensive) for others to borrow money.

jan

April 9th, 2008 10:22am

Is not part of the problem that ever increasing government borrowing squeezes out other borrowers? I know that if I were an investor or bank with money to invest, I would much rather invest in government backed bonds that in people buying houses in an apparently falling housing market. Increased government borrowing therefore means that other borrowers inevitably find it harder (or more expensive) to borrow money.

David

April 9th, 2008 10:23am

He has, of course, already started to lay out this narrative with the interview granted yesterday to Mr Robinson of the BBC, and faithfully parrotted in later BBC broadcasts.

It is clear that Mr Brown is a careful student of Dr Goebbels, the arch propagandist. It is, I think, worth repeating some of Dr Goebbels` better known remarks and reconsidering them in the context of contemporary government "spin".

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe
it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally
important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the
mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one
fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points
and repeat them over and over”

“Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”

lola

April 9th, 2008 10:55am

More comment on the same theme please. Brow - as the most useless, profligate and deceitful chancellor/politician that I can recall needs to be held directly accountable for the shambles we are now in.

Matthew

April 9th, 2008 10:57am

Basically, what Sir Humphrey Appleby would advise!

Francis

April 9th, 2008 11:13am

In May 1997 standard variable mortgage rate was 7.25% - today it is 7.25%. How can GB claim to have lowered interest rates?

Ted Tedford

April 9th, 2008 11:41am

Brown is remarkably reluctant to accept that major decisions he made while running our economy in any way contribute to the 'global financial turmoil' he's always botting on about. But he was more than happy to take the credit when things were apparently going well.

Could we term this Brownian Cause and Effect? It's a bit like Brownian motion: it's unpredictable, but it's not random, as it comes into play only when it reflects well on the government.

Maybe other examples could be found, like the Brownies.

Fraser Nelson

April 9th, 2008 11:52am

Francis, Brown's tactic is to pick not just the worst year, but the worst month of Tory rule and then (using his "fake proxy" method) misrepresent that as being the norm for the duration of the Tory gvt. RPI was over 10% for just 3 months in 1990, for example. And he/Balls/Darling never stop referring to that (comparing it, of course, to today's 2.2% CPI where RPI today is 4.2%) Both inflation indices are higher than those they inherited. Lies, damned lies and Brownies.

Perry

April 9th, 2008 12:05pm

Yes, yes, yes, - but hardly surprising! Dissembling, smooth, comforting words, and yet another politico wearing an inane grin, typify the brand, and the tosh. And this from a source that boasted prudence!

Just part of the problem is that so many people, for so long, have been willing to go along with the charade, which, after all, was, - and is, nothing but a bubble, - not quite South Sea, but similar in my view, regarding probity and authenticity.

Jason

April 9th, 2008 1:52pm

Analysis of interest rates and tax relief, shatters Brown's tiresome comparison with "15% interest rates under the Tories"

Brown conveniently forgets that when mortgages peaked [for a very brief period] at 15%, they were tax-deductible. Basic rate tax-payers [25%] actually payed rates of 11.25%.

Factor in that on average, during the 90's crash interest rates were about 11%, which means that minus the tax relief, you're looking at real rates of around 8.25%.

Not too far off todays SRV rates of 7.35%, that millions of borrowers face when they come off the cheap fixed deals, unless they can magic up a 15-20% deposit.

Brown is also playing politics with his unwelcome interventions re: the 'independent ' Bank of England's. If the MPC do cut tomorrow, Brown will take the credit. If they don't Brown will blame them for the economic woes.

Martin

April 9th, 2008 2:22pm

@ David - good post

This dreadful man can only do this if protected by the broadcasters.

The few people who actually run broadcast news have kept Blair and Brown in power for over 10 years by manipulating the news.

With the country now being irreversibly ruined by this man, why should the broadcasters be allowed to keep on being able to twist the news?

The problem is the small group of unelected, politically motivated broadcasters who abuse their power.

Broadcast news needs reforming.

David

April 9th, 2008 3:03pm

If you think the 1990s were bad, lucky you were not around in the 1970s. Annual inflation hit 16.7% in 1974, 24% in 1975 and 16.6% and 15.8% in the following two years.

Brown, and the UK, has had an easy ride over the past decade. We all now face the reckoning of lax lending. The crunch is not over, as he seemed to imply in his interviews yesterday; it is just beginning.

Ken

April 9th, 2008 9:07pm

Labour placemen at the license payer's BBC (radio propaganda division) are as odious as the dreadful toxic leader they scrape before - Robinson, Naughtie, et al make very little effort at impartiality. Flood em with loads of emails perhaps?

Ann

April 12th, 2008 12:39pm

Flood them with emails, and post very strongly-worded messages at Biased BBC - it's read by beeboids. Very little to add otherwise to the excellent posts above re Brown's Goebbelsian methods, the BBC's Goebbelsian methods and Brown being the worst - most incompetent, least sane, most cowardly - senior politician I have come across in the last 50 years. I will say this: I never believed a word of all this tosh about 'prudence', 'competence' and 'stability'. It was plain to see from the go that so-called Labour inherited stability from the Tories, and squandered it on ego enhancement and favours for their gang of appalling apparatchiks and hangers-on. It's quite evident when Brown is lying: his lips move.

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