In crisis, there'll be an opportunity for Brown
James Forsyth 1:13pm
If Livingstone loses on Thursday and the Labour vote slumps elsewhere in the country, the headlines for Gordon Brown will be dire and he’ll be plunged further into the mire. But in this crisis there will be a brief window of opportunity for him. The press will be in full ‘government in crisis mode’ and getting so excited by the remote prospect of a leadership challenge that Brown will actually have the freedom to carry out a drastic reshuffle. It will be embarrassing and humiliating for Brown to sack or demote those who he chose less than a year ago, but Brown will already be embarrassed and humiliated so he might as well get all the bad news out at once.
The signs are that Brown will not have a clear out straight after the elections; Downing Street fears that this would signal that the Prime Minister has hit the panic button. But the arguments for a dramatic reshuffle are sound. At the moment, the Chancellor and the Home Secretary are either not up to the job or incapable of successfully communicating Labour’s message. (Maybe, the same can be said of Brown. But there is no realistic alternative for Labour but to carry on under him; a governing party can not have three leaders in the same Parliament and remain credible). Alistair Darling and Jacqui Smith will have to go if the government is to get anywhere close to firing on all cylinders and so Brown should remove them now rather than waiting and setting off another round ‘government in crisis’ headlines at a later date.
Brown should have his three best communicators into the three top jobs. Jack Straw is an effective media performer and would be a credible Chancellor. Alan Johnson would be a perfect fit as Home Secretary, putting a more human face on this government. He’s also the only Labour figure who has a hope of steering 42 days through. David Miliband should stay at the Foreign Office but should be pushed forward more.
As for the rest of the cabinet, Liam Byrne is a natural fit for Justice and Constitutional Affairs. While Ed Miliband would give some intellectual dynamism to Labour’s health policy and show up just how dire the Tory trust the professionals’ approach is.
Once he has reshuffled, Brown should do a string of interviews with the TV news anchors admitting that he’s tried to run the government as he had the Treasury and that it hasn’t worked. Confessing this is dangerous, but Brown needs to show the public that things are going to change and admitting error—something he is not exactly prone to do—would signal that.
The good news for the Tories is that Brown is probably too risk-averse, and perhaps too proud, to do this. There are, obviously, risks in this approach. But if things go badly on Thursday, Brown will need to take risks to recover.
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Comments
Tom
April 30th, 2008 1:25pmMilliband won't want to be pushed forward - he has a desire to be PM and won't want to be tarred by the Brown smear.
Mike
April 30th, 2008 1:41pmThe chances of Brown marshalling reserves of so-far-undiscovered courage to take such brutal action are less than zero. Not only does he lack the decisiveness and courage required there are few credible candidates for the top jobs.
Jack Straw is a leadership rival, Brown doesn't do rivals.
Cheeky chappie Alan Johnson is unlikely to take such a poisoned chalice - hey please alienate the entire PLP!
David Milliband hasn't exactly set the world on fire and Ed Milliband is barely human. And the biggie. You are forgetting the key missing name here. Ed Balls. The chances of Ed Balls sitting idly by as Brown promotes leadership rival Jack Straw to Chancellor are also less than zero. There would be blood splattered everywhere for that to happen! Wait for Ed's mates at the Times and the Torygraph to start dissing Jack!
DPT
April 30th, 2008 1:58pmJames,
This is exactly what I want to happen. Definitely a good reshuffle along those lines as well as an apology or admission of error on his part is an absolute must if Labour are to win a 4th term.
Summer is the last chance. Unless the Brown Govt recoups over summer and energises itself both physically and intellectually for a general election then we Labour people will be down in the dumps for a good few years.
Come on Gordon - smell the coffee!
steve
April 30th, 2008 2:02pmI commented here a while ago that I couldn't remember a worse top four as they all appeared to be completely useless. Well I have changed my opinion slightly. Darling and Brown are still merely useless, Smith on the other hand appears to be actively malignant as she goes truffling round looking for ways of squashing our freedom - all in our own good of course. But Miliband, dare I say it appears to be growing into the job, still a way to go but showing signs of improvement.
steve
April 30th, 2008 2:27pmDPT - sorry to disappoint you but I think the die has been cast for Brown and it is already too late. In spite of most of my postings I am not actually a genetic Conservative, and have voted for all the maain parties at various levels and times but there comes a point when a party has simply been in power too long and it is time to let the others have a go my feeling is that the Labour party has now reached this point and unless something truly unexpected emerges with regards to the Conservatives (a bizarre sex scandal, or them turning out all be in Al-Qaeda - something of that level of unexpectedness) then from the Labour point of view the election is already lost.
Mike H
April 30th, 2008 2:32pm"...Brown should do a string of interviews with the TV news anchors admitting that he’s tried to run the government as he had the Treasury and that it hasn’t worked".
And pigs might fly.
Perry
April 30th, 2008 2:40pmBut . . . and forgive the cynical edge . . . and all caveats considered . . . the Beloved Leader ploughs ahead regardless, - untroubled, - and untouched.
I draw on just two threads in Coffee House today : the JH ‘interview’, and PMQs.
How does this happen?
DougS
April 30th, 2008 2:50pmStuff like interviews and admissions of problems . . . and that he'll do better next time just won't work.
There are two fundamental, irreducible problems: Labour's brand of socialism just doesn't work after the money runs out, and Brown just doesn't have the personality to be effective as PM.
And neither money nor a new personality can be conjured up out of thin air.
Madasafish
April 30th, 2008 3:20pmMike above is right. Balls would not tolerate it and Gordon would not pass Balls over for Chancellor.
And I suspect Darling - who clearly has disagreements with brown - though loyal - might not go lightly.
Anyway, will Gordon grow a spine and become street smart? Do politicians always tell the truth?
tolkein
April 30th, 2008 3:49pmHe needs grown-ups in the big jobs. A real way to signal this would be to put Charles Clarke in the Treasury. No one would accuse him of being Gordon's sock puppet and it would strengthen the Government. Perhaps then send Ed Balls there as Chief Secretary
Michael Huntsman
April 30th, 2008 5:09pm"As for the rest of the cabinet, Liam Byrne is a natural fit for Justice and Constitutional Affairs."
You are joking aren't you?
Or perhaps you missed this in 2007:
http://tinyurl.com/2j3sqs
upon which I blogged, here:
http://tinyurl.com/66evwn
This particular individual at Justice & Constitutional Affairs would frighten the pants off me.
Cindy
April 30th, 2008 6:35pmHope to God Brown and co do not read this piece because I dont want them to get back on track!
Stan, UK
April 30th, 2008 6:38pmDarling should not be blamed for the economic mess we are in, its what he has inherited from Brown. However I do agree that Smith is a disaster at the Home office but one thing I dont get is this admiration for Straw he has been a failure at every cabinet job he has held.
mitch
April 30th, 2008 7:04pmNo way, gordon will be in "bunkermode" and reality will go sailing over his head like it always has.
Max Kaye
April 30th, 2008 9:03pmDeck chairs. Titanic.
rich
April 30th, 2008 10:20pmyikes its worst than I thought. Used to like milliband but remember the snivelling over teddygate, and straw over the catroons ... and they are the good ones?
rich
April 30th, 2008 10:21pmyikes its worst than I thought. Used to like milliband but remember the snivelling over teddygate, and straw over the catroons ... and they are the good ones?
rich
April 30th, 2008 10:21pmyikes its worst than I thought. Used to like milliband but remember the snivelling over teddygate, and straw over the catroons ... and they are the good ones?