What's next?
James Forsyth 2:21pm
The calls for Labour to get rid of Gordon Brown come from both the left (Martin Kettle) and the right (Matthew Parris) in this morning’s newspapers. It still seems almost impossible that this will happen but Brown will have a hideous next few days, coming under attack from both sides of the party.
What will worry Labour MPs most is what the numbers from these elections mean for the next general election. When even as sober an analyst as Peter Riddell describes the results as “unreservedly poor” and a sign that Labour has, fatally, lost its political authority then there is a real problem.
Perhaps, the most damming part of Kettle’s column for Brown is when he maps this week’s results onto Westminster constituencies. “Almost 40% of Labour's vote has ebbed away since 2005. Take, for instance, what has happened in Southampton. The Conservatives didn't just win the local council there this week. They also hoisted their share of the vote to levels that place both the city's Labour MPs - including the universities secretary John Denham - on clear notice of losing their seats. Three years ago, Denham had a 21-point majority over the Tories in Southampton Itchen; it made Itchen Labour's 189th most marginal seat. Yet this week the Tories stacked up a 20-point lead over Labour among the selfsame voters.
You think this is just an extreme case of Labour's famed southern discomfort? Think again. This is a nationwide phenomenon. Look at Bury in the north-west. In the general election of 2005, Labour's Ivan Lewis, the junior health minister, did a Denham. With 51% of the vote, Lewis was nearly 23 points ahead of the Tories, making Bury South Labour's 204th most marginal seat. On Thursday, Labour slumped to 31.7% there, more than seven points adrift of the Conservatives. Lewis, like Denham, now faces defeat.” The key question is what do the survival instincts of Labour MPs tell them to do? On the one hand, the electorate hates and punishes divided parties. However, continuing as things are is a recipe for certain disaster.
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Comments
Nicholas
May 3rd, 2008 3:48pmI noticed that the "usual suspects" were already trotting out a spun and scripted text of how it was all due to the economic downturn, mid-term blues and that New Labour need to listen to the concerns of ordinary people and then "move forwards" (presumably and as usually ignoring what they hear).
Oh, please, not another re-launch and another barrage of ill-thought through, unwanted "initiatives" intended to divert attention from the woeful realities of life under possibly the worst government in British history - certainly in living memory. It is time instead for Brown and his cabinet of misfits to say little, do nothing, display some humility and keep a very low profile.
Too much bad government, too visibly and too audibly perpetrated on the people is not best corrected by more of the same. May I suggest a very long period of reflection, circumspection and critical self-analysis before New Labour attempts to raise its tattered flag above the parapet again. Then when it does a call for a general election may be a good idea.
Austin Barry
May 3rd, 2008 5:05pmYou can almost see the desperate text message sent to the bowel-loosened cadre of the party faithful on Thursday night, "Keep asserting that WE-WILL-LISTEN". How much more of this banal death rattle will we have to listen to over the weeks and months? If Brown repeats it on any of his television interviews tomorrow I will chuck something at the screen - ideally the chirruping, complacent, murderously irritating Hazel Blears.
John
May 3rd, 2008 6:36pmWell, for Peter's sake, OF COURSE they were unreservedly poor, you numbskull. "They are utterly horrendous", I said to myself, chortling into my mug of coffee (the champagne will come later). They are a well-deserved kick in the groin to a smug, useless coterie of amateurs that has no clue whatsoever -- even now! -- how much contempt the electorate feel towards it, and actually seem to believe that matters can be fixed with a few slogans and more spin on Newsnight. Unbelievable. I wouldn't have allowed Mr Bean to run a news stand. And yes, I have been saying this for nearly 10 years.
Perry
May 3rd, 2008 6:38pmPart of the Noo-Lie-Bore disease is the aggrandisement and distortion of any title, be it people, posts, or places.
Thus, with the current state of ‘Universities’ – many of which are nothing but pretentious Polytechnics, - he (the ‘Universities’ minister) never would be missed . . . he never would.
Perry
May 3rd, 2008 6:39pmOh - and I do so agree with Nicholas and Austin above
Water
May 3rd, 2008 7:00pmWell said Nicholas, well said.
Tony
May 3rd, 2008 11:10pmLabour are a disgrace already pouring out the familiar phrases, "We have lessons to learn"; "We will listen and respond"; "We will focus on what is right for the country". I say familiar because they are the exact same phrases used by Conservative politicians before their defeat in the 1990s.
Cindy
May 3rd, 2008 11:20pmThere was a silver lining last night for Labour; there wasn't an election in Scotland. Because let's face it, the SNP will tear Labour apart next time round, because if Labour can lose in it's heartlands in England and Wales to the Tories and Plaid imagine the picture in Scotland as the SNP are riding the crest of a popularity wave at the moment.