Are we in for a shock tomorrow?

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Raleigh, North Carolina

For a long time, many observers have had tomorrow marked down as the day that the Democratic primary would end. It was thought, and rightly, that Clinton couldn’t survive a double-loss. But the conventional wisdom is now that Hillary will win Indiana and that she’s closing strongly on Obama in North Carolina. Certainly, Obama’s final event in North Carolina, which I was at earlier, was surprisingly low key and his campaign seems oddly flat on the ground. I’m off to a Bill Clinton event in a few hours and I’ll be intrigued to see if Bill is prepared to make any bold predictions about how Hillary will do here.

If Obama doesn’t win North Carolina by a larger margin that Clinton wins Indiana then there will be a renewed emphasis on his vulnerabilities and with many of the remaining contests on favourable ground for Clinton the chances of her winning the nomination will definitely tick up. While if she were to pull of a double victory, which is unlikely but not impossible, then we’d be in a whole new ball game. Equally, if Obama does still manage to pull off a double despite the rough time he had recently then this contest will be effectively over. Much more on this over at Americano.