The spread in Crewe
James Forsyth 12:54pm
Today’s ComRes poll, the weekend one by ICM and reports from the ground have persuaded most of us that the Tories are going to win Crewe and Nantwich. That alone is a sign of how fast events have moved in recent weeks. Just before the local and London elections, the consensus on Coffee House was that there “a very small chance of a Tory victory”.
If Labour do lose, the margin of defeat will be key to Brown’s prospects. A Labour loss by up to four points has already been factored into the Brown share price. So, it would probably not change that much though it would lead to a few more people putting their heads above the parapet. Anything above that and things get interesting. A four to eight point defeat would see a slew of people coming forward with their solutions to save Labour. If Crewe turns into a real thumping with the Tories winning by eight points or more, then talk of a leadership challenge to Brown will not seem as far-fetched as it does today. If the Tory margin extends into double digits, then there is a real chance that someone might be prepared to risk challenging Brown and that people close to him would be prepared to tell him that the game is up, one person who has been in the Brown inner circle since the start is said to be ready to tell the PM he has to step down for the good of the partyin these circumstances. The consolation for Brown is that if Labour does hold Crewe then he’ll have an opportunity to carve out a comeback narrative for himself.
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Comments
CS
May 20th, 2008 1:38pm***A four to eight point defeat would see a slew of people coming forward with their solutions to save Labour.***
Where do people get these numbers from? Why not a 3 to 7 point defeat or a 5 to 9 point defeat? It's just people who earn a cushy living from little more than holding opinions providing themselves with self-perpetuating fuel.
Ian C
May 20th, 2008 2:58pmBut the question on Labour lips must be "How on earth do we come to be here after less than a year since Brown's coronation as Labour Leader/PM (or ‘was it a landslide victory against nobody’)?"
Is part of the answer that, since his elevation, his is not seen as a legitimate government? The 'missteps' in the autumn were bad but not so damning as to bring on this speed of decline, except perhaps N/Rock. And the oil and food price rises are not directly attributable. Not even Brown's recently exposed lack of public personality were a surprise. It's tempting not to dig around for underlying fundamentals when there is a major popular shift afoot but something stronger is going on here, and if the by-election is anywhere close to double-digit win for the Tories it will be confirmation.
Frank Pulley
May 20th, 2008 4:20pmYou are right Ian C. Up here a sea-breeze is ablowing around my Norfolk retreat; methinks it is the wind of change. I recommend a little deadly serious light relief from Littlejohn today:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1020524/Sinister-secrets-dustbin-Nazis.html
His appraisal of EU Directive 75/442/EEC is a little masterpiece, in case you missed it. It underlines just how close the knock at the door is getting for all of us. But I need more assurances from the Cameroons that they will reverse the Brussels Bureaucratic bullying before I'm satisfied that the wind of change will bring better weather.
Water
May 20th, 2008 6:48pmIs that a blue tie?
Peter M
May 21st, 2008 2:19pmRemember Neil Kinnock at the Labour party conference? "We're going to grind the Tory bastards into the dust"
Hard to believe it was only September. Wonder how he feels now? It's incredible that Brown could squander such a lead so quickly. The Labour party would be mad to hang onto him regardless of the result tomorrow. Hope they get hammered.
Graham Fairfax
May 21st, 2008 8:21pmThere is,apparently,146 more vulnerable seats in the Labour fold based on a simple mathemathic majority.Of course not all of these seats would be taken in a sea change to the Tories but a major victory for them tomorrow would undoubtedly lead to Browns early,and deservedly,ignominious exit.