Does Labour have no alternative to Brown?
James Forsyth 8:59am
Considering the size of the swing to the Tories last night, it no longer seems silly to talk about a leadership challenge to Gordon Brown. But Michael White’s analysis this morning neatly sums up why an actual challenge—as opposed to talk of one—is still unlikely:
"Can Labour MPs and their union paymasters, busy flexing their muscles again, get rid of Brown? In theory, yes. It would take 70 or so names to trigger a confidence vote. But who is there to take over, who could make a significant difference, even - unlikely - if the prime minister decided to walk? Most Labour MPs have no more experience of a political downturn than they do of a recession. There will be a lot of talk - up to cabinet level - but little more at this stage.
Why? It is not obvious who or what the answer is. Brown may be like Jim Callaghan, fated to follow a powerful premier - Harold Wilson - but unable to win his own mandate. That election wobble, speculation allowed to run too long last autumn, may have been the real turning point, Crewe the mere confirmation."
The one thing that might prompt someone to stand is the growing consensus that Brown simply can’t recover from this position. The size of the Tory lead after the conference season could be key in determining Brown’s fate.
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Comments
salieri
May 23rd, 2008 9:04amThere are not many people on whom I would wish unemployment but after her appearance on 'Today' Harridan Harman is one of them.
Very happy Perry of England. Also British in the sense of formerly Great, and proud of what the result means today.
May 23rd, 2008 9:13amJust idle speculation really, - and through a pleasant haze after enjoying an especially delicious breakfast, - just what has Mz. Prudence of Noo-Lie-Bore, the financially bingeing bimbo of bombastic bullying, cost us? Can it be calculated, - even in money terms? Mustn’t forget her £2m pension pot either. I mention it only to dismiss it for the while.
Max Kaye
May 23rd, 2008 9:36amIt may be overcast in Middle England this morning - but it's still a wonderful day.
Nu Labour and Brown Crewe-cified on live TV. That's what I call entertainment.
John Page
May 23rd, 2008 9:55amJohn Humphrys did a poor job on 'Today' interviewing Harriet Harman. She kept saying they would do what they could to help voters but wasn't asked about the 10p giveaway being for one year only, or about car and fuel tax rises in the pipeline.
Kevyn Bodman
May 23rd, 2008 10:05amLabour are going to lose the next General Election whoever their Leader is.
Remember what Callaghan said about the sea-change.Last night was confirmation enough for me that it has happened.
None of the kiddies like Milliband, Purnell, Burnham will want to lead the Labour Party to inevitable defeat.
So maybe Straw, or Johnson might do the job until the next election and resign the leadership shortly afterwards?
I think that would probably be best.
I don't care about the pain that NuLab might have to go through, in fact I rather enjoy it.
But Brown is PM of the United Kingdom, and it can't be good for that job-holder to have so completely lost the trust and respect of the population as Brown has.
So for the good of the country, Brown should go.
Someone else can then lead them to their inevitable, and richly-deserved, heavy defeat at the polls.
Kevyn Bodman
May 23rd, 2008 10:07amLabour are going to lose the next General Election whoever their Leader is.
Remember what Callaghan said about the sea-change.Last night was confirmation enough for me that it has happened.
None of the kiddies like Milliband, Purnell, Burnham will want to lead the Labour Party to inevitable defeat.
So maybe Straw, or Johnson might do the job until the next election and resign the leadership shortly afterwards?
I think that would probably be best.
I don't care about the pain that NuLab might have to go through, in fact I rather enjoy it.
But Brown is PM of the United Kingdom, and it can't be good for that job-holder to have so completely lost the trust and respect of the population as Brown has.
So for the good of the country, Brown should go.
Someone else can then lead them to their inevitable, and richly-deserved, heavy defeat at the polls.
Oscar
May 23rd, 2008 10:24amThe birds are singing here in Middle England Max - and the blue, blue skies are just about to breakthrough.
Water
May 23rd, 2008 11:11amAre they blue tits?
Minnie Ovens
May 23rd, 2008 11:41amI watched Question Time last night and was struck how Hazel Blears resembles a Parrot with a Minor bird's mouth.
The Parrot sits there with beady eyes darting and fixed smile. Asked a question a series of Minor bird type emanations flow forth which have little to do with the question.
For John Humphries, although I did not listen to the interview, it must be the same noises coming out of Harmon.
As regards entering the race to become the leader of the Labour Party, anyone worth their salt, which means anyone under 40, probably has now decided to wait out the inevitable return of the Tories.
It may be a long time to wait but to put your hat in the ring now would finish you for ever.
Frank Pulley
May 23rd, 2008 1:14pmsalieri
Harridan Harperson if you please!
Max
"Crewecified!" Wonderful!
No excuse for such punnery though; nantwich I can think of, anyway.
However, I think we can call this a bye-bye election - for Brown anyway.
Frank Pulley
May 23rd, 2008 1:19pmMinnie
Blears is a minor politician, Mynah Bird's mouth notwithstanding.
Oscar
May 23rd, 2008 2:49pmIt's beginning to look like the dream ticket for the Conservatives - Labour can't win with Brown but can't ditch him successfuly either. What could be more perfect than that?
Water - all the birds were blue this morning ...
DavidC
May 23rd, 2008 3:04pmLabour has no alternative to Brown and Brown will lose the next GE.
If the economy picks up, then the next two years will pass with a sense of increasing exasperation on the part of the electorate at 'the party guest who has overstayed their welcome'.
If the economy does not recover, then the feeling of anger that prevails at the present will grow and the electorate will be motivated to vent their fury at an election.
Either way, last night was the "Taxi for Mr. Brown!" moment
oldtimer
May 23rd, 2008 3:32pmLabour`s problem is that Brown has paddled them up the creek and won`t let go the paddle. This is good news for Cameron.
Oscar
May 23rd, 2008 3:56pmWatching Labour is like watching the Charge of the Light Brigade - but without the honour or the courage.
Paul B
May 23rd, 2008 4:17pmFrank Pulley
No excuse for such punnery though; nantwich I can think of, anyway.
Superb!!