One year on, Brown's got the opinion poll blues

MD

The killer fact in all this is that 86 percent think the government is implicated in their economic woes. This is the narrative No 10 was dreading and will be really hard to shift with all the risks stacked up on the downside. Politically the biggest of these could be the budget as a collapse in growth and tax receipts put pressure on tax hikes. IFS material in the next couple of months could be very interesting - things are changing very fast.

John

As far as I am concerned, he is off the scale. Can I give him -10, please?

Faceless Bureaucrat

Is it really possible that Labour will be overtaken in the polls by the Lib Dems? I never thought I'd see the day when the Labour Party sank this low in popularity. Could it be that we are seeing not just the end of Gordon Brown, or even the end of the Labour Party (as we currently know it), but the end of British Socialism? Perhaps GB will go down in history as the man who destroyed left-wing politics in this country. At least he'll be remembered for something...

Tradebot

Labour down -20 points in a year...Long may this noble trend continue.

Nicholas

FB: Hope so.

Pulsating Perry

“ . . B – l – u - e Broon . .
You mope there, standing alone,
No-one to lecture or bore at,
No-one to bootlick or fawn,

[continues]

King Prawn

Faceless bureaucrat.

We will see a Tory landslide in 2010 with many Blairites becoming the main casualties in the wipe out.

This will lead to Labour in the hands of the left wingers with Jon Cruddas becoming the next Labour Leader.

So what will the likes of David Milliband, Purnell, Burnham and Frank Field do?

Will they stay in the Labour Party to fight their position knowing it will be a losing battle both with the Party and with the Electorate.

Will they retire from politics?

Or will they leave the Labour Party to form a new centre party?

Travis Bickle

FB
Who could begrudge Gordon Brown being remembered for something as positive as ending British Socialism, alongside his other less proud claims to fame, Worst Chancellor of 20th (and 21st)century, Traitor to the British Nation, Destroyer of best pension system in western world and Worst Gold Salesman in history?

Glen

If only the general public could force a vote of no confidence

David

"As I've written before, his victory in the 42-day detention vote and the resignation of David Davis could have given him a platform from which to rebuild his party's fortunes"

You know, for someone getting paid for this, you are really bad at political analysis. The 42 day victory was going to be the platform for (another) relauch by Brown, however Davis totally blew it away, denying Brown the press cycle.

occasional ranter

Just being picky: Labour are down 4 points, not 6 (their lead has increased by 6).

Toby Young

In light of this latest poll, would have thought David Cameron could come up with a witty line or two during PMQs in which he proposes that Labour adopt a five-point test for dropping their leader, similar to the five-point test for dropping the pound that Brown came up with as Chancellor. Top of the list should be Labour being overtaken in the polls by the Lib Dems. If that happens, Brown surely can't hang on, can he?

Tankus

FB: me too !

Pete Hoskin

occasional ranter: thanks, I've corrected that now.

Faceless Bureaucrat

King Prawn [10.53am]
"Or will they leave the Labour Party to form a new centre party?"

Quite possible, but remember the last time disgruntled Labour MPs broke away to form their own Party?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/august/6/newsid_2527000/2527629.stm

Pete Hoskin

David: what I wrote doesn't preclude your observation. That's why I italicised the word 'could'. If the Brown attack machine had been firing on all cylinders, then he *could* have spun both events - the 42-day vitory and the resignation of a Tory MP - to his favour. He didn't. And the rest, as they say, is history...

David C

Toby Young
The Lib/Dems are beginning to fall away.
They could hope to boost their image in the Henley vote but Cleggy needs to up his game in opposing the Government.
Politics is a slimy business. I'm wondering if Cameron is soft pedalling on Brown in view of Labour's and internal poll.

Tina

In more detail:

Labour's 25% is the lowest recorded in the ICM polls, which began in 1984

Conservative support, at 45%, is at a 20-year high

Liberal Democrat support is five points behind Labour, the narrowest gap on record

74% of those questioned say that Gordon Brown has been a change for the worse compared with Tony Blair

24% think Labour has a chance of winning the next election while he remains leader

Asked to rate Gordon Brown's performance on a scale of one to 10, voters give Brown only 3.94 on average. Almost a quarter, 23%, give him a one

Among people who voted Labour in 2005, many of whom now back other parties, 54% give him five out of 10 or less

Attitudes are much the same among all socio-economic groups, all parts of the country and between men and women.

A majority of people who backed Labour at the last election, 57%, also say that they do not think the party can win again with Brown as leader.

Among current Labour supporters, 38% think Brown cannot win.

17% of people who backed Labour in 2005 are thinking of backing the Tories instead while 7% may vote Lib Dem.

Among people who voted Labour in 2005, 3% of voters say that their impression of the prime minister and his party has gone up, while 46% say that it has gone down
13% agree with ministerial claims that Britain's problems are the result of global difficulties

86% think that government decisions have played a part
40% think the government is mainly or wholly to blame

Among people who backed Labour in 2005, 74% think that the government is at least partly at fault

alf

what brown did was to place so many stealth taxes and raid the pensions + put taxes on everything that moves that everyone had to use credit cards to pay bills hopeing for better times only to find brown creating even more taxes,
this blokes a moron,he is single handedly destroying the labour party with his stupid ways, not to mention the effect it has on expectant mothers who may abort because they now cannot afford to have children ( GB )so now i know what GB stands for not great britain then,