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Hamastan-on-the-Nile?

Wednesday, 30th January 2008

The breaching by Hamas of the barrier between Gaza and Egypt has created a new situation of considerable complexity on the ground. For Israel, the danger from the free flow of terrorist men and materiel in and out of Egypt, and able to penetrate the porous border between Sinai and Israel, is obvious. On the other hand, several commentators are speculating that along with the danger comes an opportunity — that Egypt, which fears Hamas, will no longer be able to rely on Israel to control the violence in Gaza but will now be forced to do the job itself. Some are even suggesting that Gaza should be annexed to Egypt, which makes a certain amount of sense given the close cultural, family and historic ties between Egypt and the Arabs of Gaza. Gaza would thus cease to be Israel's problem and become instead what it actually is, an Arab problem; the issue of Palestinian nationalism would need to be recalibrated in the direction of cultural reality; and finally the Middle East impasse would be broken and proper moves could start towards a peaceful resolution.

Such optimistic day-dreaming, however, assumes that Egypt would swallow Hamas. But there is a significant risk that Hamas would swallow Egypt. It is becoming ever clearer that the breach in the wall with Egypt was far from a spontaneous eruption of desperate need, as the half-witted western media presented it, but was a long-standing and meticulously planned operation. Clearly, Hamas is making a push against weak Egypt, ruled by the near octogenarian President Mubarak who is desperately trying to hold off the Muslim Brotherhood inside his country from turning it into an Islamist state. And probably the most significant player in all this, as ever, is Iran. Despite the fact that Hamas is an offshoot of the Egyptian Sunni Brotherhood, it is being backed by Iran — which, as Haaretz reports, is now close to resuming ties with Egypt which have been broken for decades. The smashing of the Egyptian wall could therefore be the prelude to an Iranian Hamastan in Egypt, which would threaten not just Israel but the entire region and indeed the free world. On the other hand, Mubarak is ruthless towards his enemies. The shape of this is as yet far from clear.

Update: Daniel Pipes, who suggests that Gaza should be handed over to Egypt, publishes this revealing photograph on his site:

His caption reads:

'Egyptians and Palestinians are one people, not two peoples,' says a sign held by a Palestinian on Jan. 29, 2008.

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Roy

January 30th, 2008 9:47am

With Israel being on the front line against a foe continuing to gain sustenance from both the free world and the world chained to Islam. It is a game with high stakes and a ruthless adversary. Israel in fact is the Stalingrad of western democracy. But do we have a western leader who can see the possible significance?

Shy Guy

January 30th, 2008 10:43am

Roy, the hell with western leaders! Right smack here in Israel, we're on a rudderless ship.

Corin

January 30th, 2008 1:46pm

Iranian influence in Syria and Egypt? Prepare for open war. Get rid of Olmert, you need Netanyahu.

David M

January 30th, 2008 6:52pm

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 01/30/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.

Lynne T

January 30th, 2008 7:13pm

It may suit Daniel Pipes for Egypt to take custody of the Gaza, but I doubt either Mubarek Sr. or Jr. would warm to annexing another 1.5 million citizens who are either pro-Muslim Brotherhood or pro-Hiz-b'ut-Tahir (or however it is spelled). They've got plenty of Islamists in Egypt proper to worry about without having a hot bed of them in Sinai (Hamas's real goal in blowing holes in the barrier on the Egyptian side) and the Gaza

YA

January 30th, 2008 7:36pm

Too speculative, but here it is - it looks like a "soft" or bifurcation point. There are 2 scenarios, first one is, well, growing terrorism in both in Gaza and Sinai, and eventually Talibanization of Egypt under the banner of Resistance, and probably even frontal conflict.
Second scenario is relatively benign - Gaza becomes part of Egypt, while the mugs of insanity are more or less kept shut; Hamas joins Muslim Brotherhood and accepts it political peaceful Egyptian agenda. And what else, they switch to growing parsley and oranges?.. Hmm.. OK in bifurcation, system is sensitive to external forces. What is going on in US/EU and in Iran, will matter; and also who is the one coming after Mubarak? - he will have many levers.. if that will be somebody of the sort of Asad junior, who cows to jihadis, scenario number one is more likely.
Anyway, thanks Gaza Division for recent anti-terror SOPs and operational templates, that was very timely. Will be used heavily in the nearest future, in any case.

Lee Jakeman

January 30th, 2008 8:22pm

I had a dream last night. I saw a basket full of eggs bearing the inscription "Egypt". Then I saw a rotten egg called "Hamas" cosying up to the other eggs. Can anyone out there interpret this dream for me?

field

January 31st, 2008 7:34pm

Teh Egyptians would have to be crazy to take on Gaza. They administered it for 20 years and never absorbed it. Why should they do so now? I think the best scenario is simply for Al Fatah to convert itself into a liberal democratic movement that recognises Israel and then invades clapped out Gaza (with Egyptian rather than Israeli support) to resassert its "legitimate authority". That is more plausible as well.

trumpeldor

February 1st, 2008 9:15am

FIELD :I think the best scenario is simply for Al Fatah to convert itself into a liberal democratic movement that recognises Israel and then invades clapped out Gaza (with Egyptian rather than Israeli support) to resassert its "legitimate authority". That is more plausible as well. Fata will never be democratic Its lone purpose is Israel destruction Israel needs a realistic leader who will put a fast death to oslo process