Over and out
There's a bizarre post by Conor Ryan on the Democrat nomination process:
A 67-26 victory in West Virginia by the woman whom the media has been declaring a lame duck is a reminder why this contest is not over yet. The maths of the Democratic race may dictate that Obama is the likely candidate, but the maths of the Presidential election are rather more complicated, and suggest Hillary is more likely to beat McCain.Be that as it may, the fact - fact, not media speculation - is that Obama has more of the primary delgates tied up, and the superdelegates are announcing only one way - for Obama. The contest is over, over, over. It's as over as my ante post bet on New Approach in the 2000 Guineas. It's as over as Brian Clough. It's as over as Gordon Brown.
The argument about who'd be best to beat McCain is now irrelevant. Obama will be the nominee. All Hillary is doing is getting her 'I told you so's in now, ready for 2012. And turning it into a self-fulfilling prophesy by expanding, rather than minimising, voters' splits.
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Kevyn Bodman
May 14th, 2008 7:08pmHave a look at Melanie's post.
Obama is deeply flawed.
It's not over till the delegate votes are counted, or until the lady in the pantsuit says it is.
Did you see her speech after the West Virginia Primary?
Calm, clever, compelling.
A strong woman and a tough woman.
Obama's a better orator but do you want 'Leo McGarry' to say 'We need you in the Situation Room, Mr. President,we need you to make a speech.'
Better would be,'We need you in the Situation Room, Madam President, we need you to make a difficult decision.'
Effing and Blinding
May 14th, 2008 7:35pmWhere does Hillary stand for 2012?
If Obama becomes president, assuming he isn't a complete disaster (ie impeached-level disaster), wouldn't he get the Democrat nomination automatically?
And Hillary will be pushing 70 come 2016. Not too old, but getting there.
So if Hillary wants to be Prez but loses to Obama now, presumably her only hope to get the nomination for 2012 is for McCain to win this time.
No doubt she will put party ahead of personal ambition to ensure that doesn't happen...
Tariq
May 14th, 2008 9:34pmAgreed. And flawed candidate though he may be, Obama is a giant killer who has bested the Clintons, the dominant figures in their party since 1992, at their own game. It's only logical to conclude that he will be formidable against McCain, a notably weak candidate who won the GOP nomination by default rather than enthusiastic embrace. Moreover, the GOP is short of funds and its base is dispirited, so it will probably rely heavily on swift-boating to keep Obama out of the White House. Except that approach clearly failed recently in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi, where safe GOP Congressional seats were won by Democrats, despite attempts to link them to Obama's supposed radicalism / elitism / whathaveyouism.