In Zimbabwe, hope has turned to silent terror
Peter Oborne says that the post-electoral limbo leaves Mugabe with a series of unpalatable options, the armed forces in disarray and Zimbabweans with a sense of grim foreboding
On the night after the presidential elections 12 days ago, a British diplomat, Philip Barclay, witnessed the count at the little outpost of Bikisa deep in rural Masvingo. This part of Zimbabwe is Zanu PF heartland. In all five presidential elections since independence in 1981 the people of Bikisa had voted solidly for Robert Mugabe — and there was little expectation of anything different this time.
Barclay reports feeling faint with sheer amazement when it became clear that the largest pile of votes was for Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. Just 44 people in Bikisa voted for President Mugabe, against an overwhelming 167 for Tsvangirai.
Reports from other areas soon made it clear that Bikisa was not exceptional, and that Mugabe had been voted out of power in a political earthquake. By late in the afternoon on 30 March — the day after the election — the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, an independent body charged with overseeing the poll, was in a position to make a cautious estimate of the result. It judged that Morgan Tsvangirai had secured almost 60 per cent of the vote, more than double that of Robert Mugabe with 27 per cent.
Sources say that when this news was brought to the President his first reaction was genuine incredulity. He is now so out of touch, and so used to winning elections, that he had felt confident of a comfortable majority.
Incredulity swiftly turned to anger, and Mugabe grimly ordered the Electoral Commission to declare him the victor. This command was resisted by very brave election officials. They received unexpected support, however, from senior personnel within the Zimbabwe state security apparatus, fearful of the public order consequences that would certainly flow from such blatant fixing of the result.
At this stage South Africa’s President Mbeki tried to solve the problem. Reportedly Mbeki also wished the result to be rigged, though not as blatantly as Mugabe. He seems to have proposed that the ZEC should sharply downgrade Tsvangirai’s share of the vote, sharply upgrade Mugabe to a more respectable 40 per cent and dramatically increase the share of the vote enjoyed by the renegade Zanu PF presidential candidate Simba Makoni.
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Les
April 11th, 2008 10:18amThe final result of the election will be violence and chaos as in Kenya(the bright light of democracy in Africa).
It's the African way.
Familiar Clown
April 11th, 2008 1:35pmThe SADC meetings have always proved a toothless talking shop. Tsvangirai won the elections full stop. It will be up to the concerted efforts of his countrymen and friends in Africa to boot out Mugabe. He will do it, although, at this stage, democracy as an ideal may have to take second place to sheer survival of the masses.
Mike D
April 15th, 2008 2:44pmThis all had to happen.
The 1980 elections were not even vaguely free and fair. The Rhodesian security forces were confined to their bases. Mugabe's terrorist army was not similarly confined to assembly points. Where it was meant to be. Followers were, yes. The hard core were in the townships and the rural areas terrorizing the black population. Doing what they had done throughout the bush war. Killing the headmen, raping their women, mutilating their cattle. Instilling into them the belief that they would know who they voted for and their fate if it was not for Mugabe's Zanu PF.
Soames, Carrington et al were not interested. They wanted out. In any fashion that could be papered over to look respectable. And to be shot of the whole mess. Nigerian oil and a happy Commonwealth were what mattered to them. Not 275 000 whites and a few million blacks. Or what was just.
Mugabe will soon go. But that a minor part of the problem. If Zimbabwe wants to be where it was in the 1990's one thing has to happen. Its agricultural industry has to be reinstated. Which means white farmers, capital and guarantees of safety and security. None of these will happen. Another Zambia, perhaps, and nothing more.