Obama failed this week as well as Clinton

07 May 2008

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James Forsyth says that Hillary’s disappointment in Tuesday’s primaries is matched by the decline in Obama’s image, as the sheen of the wunderkind fades and doubts multiply

Barack Obama entered the arena on Tuesday night to Bruce Springsteen’s ‘The Rising’. But a more appropriate song would have been ‘You Can’t Always Get What You Want’ by the Rolling Stones. For although Obama did not get the two victories he wanted (in Indiana and North Carolina) to knock Hillary out of the race, he got what he needed: a far bigger win in North Carolina than Hillary Clinton achieved in Indiana. So after these two contests, Obama is within touching distance of the nomination — indeed, much of the media is now ready to declare him the nominee — and he can expect a steady flow of the all-important super-delegates to declare for him in the coming days. To be sure of the nomination, Obama needs two things: to be ahead in pledged delegates and ahead in the popular vote. In these circumstances and short of an awful scandal, the super-delegates would neither wish to nor dare to deny Obama the nomination.

The significance of Obama’s margin in North Carolina and Hillary’s failure to run up one in Indiana is that it should ensure that Obama is ahead in the popular vote as well as the delegate count at the end of this process on 3 June. If he is not, then the party would be subject to an unbelievably divisive argument. The Clintons would contend that Obama’s lead in pledged delegates was illegitimate as it had came from caucuses which disenfranchise their supporters. One Clinton staffer I spoke to this week was positively giddy about sending GIs out to make this argument (serving GIs could not vote in the caucuses, which require you to be physically present at a set place at a set time). But after Tuesday, this window has closed for the Clinton campaign — and Hillary’s subdued manner in her victory speech (in stark contrast to her barnstorming campaigning in recent days) suggests she knows it. Her decision to cancel her appearances on the morning shows on Wednesday tells the same story.

While the Clintons’ failure to change the course of the nominating process is the main message of these primaries, it is important to remember that Obama has failed too. His campaign predicted it would win Indiana and lost — the first time that this has happened. Obama’s failure to seal the deal is personal. A vote for president, the head of state, is not really about party politics; everything from the candidate’s family to his manner of speaking is taken into account. After all, the American people are inviting this person into their living-room for the next four years. The polling question about which candidate you would rather have a beer with is much mocked, but it gets at an important truth. For many voters, feeling comfortable with a candidate is as important as the precise details of their policy positions.

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Augustus

May 8th, 2008 11:27am Report this comment

A very clear appraisal if I may say so, James.

If it hasn't toughened him up, McCain sure will. And not only beerwise!

Ganpat Ram

May 8th, 2008 6:22pm Report this comment

God help McCain if he makes the stupid and fatal mistake of fighting Obama "respectfully".

That was exactly what poor Hillary did - failing to hammer home the starkly obvious fact that a man like Obama who sits in a church for 20 years listening to his chosen pastor and the pastor of his family spewing fascist and racist hate propaganda, has shown zero leadership and judgement and is rankly unfit for a role in public life in any decent country.

Clinton failed to explain this to the voters and paid the price. Obama got away with political murder.

Now it seems McCain is repeating the folly.

As for Clinton, the best thing by far that she can do for herself now is to quit her campaign NOW. Every day that she fights Obama the media focuses on comparisons between herself and Obama, not the comparison Obama mortally fears - the one between his malodorous Wright-tainted self and the super hero McCain. Hillary should finally strike the cruellest blow of all against Obama - quit the race and leave him to be massacred by McCain (which McCaim can accomplish if he doesn't pull his punches fatally).

Hillary should go home, relax and watch the wonderful, delighful spectacle of Obama being slaughtered by McCain.

She should gently tell her followers the simple truth: that McCain is a mighty hero the whole of the USA can proudly vote for, though she will not herself as she has some disagreements with his Iraq and economic policies so far.

She should gracefully decline to camapaign actively for Obama saying she would not wish to compromise the image of such a wonderfully popular man.

She should begin preparing for her real fight: with Al Gore for the 2012 Democratic nomination !

K.Vijayakumar

May 9th, 2008 8:44am Report this comment

Obama seems to have well withstood the adversities he faced in the last couple of months. He has shown great grit and poise in facing the onslaughts on him. These qualities coupled with his sharp intellect, keen political instincts and oratorical skills should make him a hit with not only the American electorate but also, if elected , with the world at large.

Verity

May 9th, 2008 10:17pm Report this comment

I believe I was the first to say, around five months ago, that Obama is Blairesque. Admittedly he is far more intelligent than Blair (but they're equally crafty) and his personal presentation is far more elegant and worldly (Blair always looked like a smarty-pants schoolboy looking for a pat on the back) but they share the same fake, empty "vision" and attachment to empty slogans ("Change you can believe in!" - huh?), high self-regard, opportunism and a vacuous, inexplicable sense of entitlement.

Vijay, you are wrong. I believe the world, especially the Anglophone world, will find his empty posturing distasteful. And they will make mincemeat of him in the Middle East.

I find the prospect of someone that inexperienced being the most powerful individual in the world quite alarming.