Cover Story

A bittersweet birthday

18 March 2006

On 20 March, the Iraq conflict reaches its third anniversary. Con Coughlin defends the decision to invade, explores the impact of Blair on Bush’s second term — and reveals what Condoleezza Rice thinks of David Cameron

The neocon vision of making Iraq a beacon of democracy that would shed its light throughout the tired autocracies of the Arab world only came after Saddam had been successfully removed from power. Washington’s attempts to enforce that vision under the unfortunate Paul Bremer — who informed an incredulous meeting of the occupation’s Governing Council, ‘I am the government of Iraq’ — lie at the root of all the trouble the Coalition has encountered since.

There were many in the British government who saw the folly of trying to impose an alien political system on an occupied people, but whatever advice Tony Blair proffered President Bush went unheeded, at least until it was too late and Bremer’s wholesale deBaathification programme — which at a stroke cast tens of thousands of harmless Baath party functionaries on to the streets — had given the insurgency a life of its own.

Blair’s failure to influence key policy decisions at the White House at crucial moments is now taken to illustrate the folly of allying himself so closely with a president who appears impervious to advice, even from America’s traditional wartime ally.

We will, of course, have to wait for the release of the official papers until a final judgment can be made, but given the undoubted affection and respect that Bush has for Blair, it does seem that the Prime Minister missed a golden opportunity to steer the Iraq agenda in a direction more to his choosing.

When I interviewed the President at the White House recently about his relationship with Blair, Bush could barely conceal the high regard in which he held the Prime Minister. ‘You know, the guy means a lot to me,’ he confided. But however much the President seeks to defend Blair’s reputation, the abiding image of the lapdog is one that is hard to dislodge.

Some of Blair’s close aides attribute his failure to make his undoubted influence at the White House count to his visceral dislike of unpleasant confrontations, whether it is with Gordon Brown or the American President. ‘There’s nothing Blair hates more than having a row,’ said one of his close political confidants. ‘In private he rants and raves about something, but then when it comes to the crunch he just backs off.’