The acclaimed young Republican writer, Reihan Salam, says that McCain can win the presidency if he appeals relentlessly to the non-college-educated white middle class, pursues family-friendly tax reform and stands for global peace through American strength
In January, I met a friend of mine to discuss his impending departure from Washington DC. He was moving to Chicago to join Senator Barack Obama’s budding presidential campaign. At the time, it was hard not to have an instinctive sympathy for Obama, not least because the Clinton campaign had by that point attracted many of the most loathsome careerists in Democratic politics. Among other things, we discussed the general election landscape. My friend, confident even then that Obama would win the Democratic nomination, was convinced that New York mayor Rudy Giuliani would be Obama’s toughest opponent in a general election. Despite the many skeletons in Giuliani’s closet, he was the kind of candidate who could scramble the map by winning the white vote in the Northeast and the Midwest. In contrast, my friend saw Senator John McCain as the perfect foil for Obama. McCain’s advanced age would highlight Obama’s youthful vigour.
This week, as Democrats swoon over Barack Obama in Denver, one is tempted to think that my friend was right. Obama’s young family has proved to be a truly formidable asset. Michelle Obama, once considered a liability along the lines of the hilariously pompous Teresa Heinz Kerry, came across as a charming and bright mother, a humble and grateful believer in the American Dream. His daughters are, as no sane observer is prepared to dispute, the cutest children in American political history. As for Obama himself, well, the power of his charisma has salved all intra-party wounds.
The other striking thing about Obama is the manic loyalty he inspires. Among many of my friends and acquaintances, a mostly liberal and mostly earnest bunch, the prospect of an Obama defeat would be more than a mere disappointment — it would represent a stunning indictment of America’s national character. Conservatives in Washington and New York nervously joke that an Obama defeat will lead prosperous Obama-loving yuppies to turn to mob violence.
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YoYo
August 28th, 2008 4:43pm Report this commentA fascinating essay on mainly domestic policy.
You mention the Iraq surge and what a shame it took so long. Rumsfeld spectacularly misfired by trying to run a war on the fly. It was the first ever time that such a small ratio of troops was used in something of that nature, with the idea that they'd be fleet of foot and able set a template for any other commander in chief faced with similar problems who wanted to get in and out quickly without getting bogged down.
That and the decision to dissolve so much of the Iraqi government cost the defence of the West a great deal of credibility.
That said, Presidential reputations are usually reappraised with the passage of time and as people get to grips with what we are up against they may one day thank Bush in a way that seems inconceivable now.
Joe Camel
August 30th, 2008 12:38am Report this commentI'd like to read what Reihan Salam has to say about Sarah Palin as McCain's VP candidate, and what difference she makes to the outlook for the election. The announcement came only today, of course (Friday), after this issue of the Speccie was already on the newsstands.
Ben
August 31st, 2008 12:24am Report this commentToo bad Reihan's book, and indeed this article, were written before Obama's superb speech accepting the nomination in Denver. Obama basically dealt with all the points mentioned by Reihan. And anyway, how can McCain suddently do a 180 degree policy shift at this late stage. He can't become an ultra Democrat overnight, and even if he tried, Obama occupied that ground in Denver. It's over, Republicans. You truly are the Grand OLD party.
Alexander
September 2nd, 2008 5:20pm Report this commentBen said "It's over, Republicans"
Not really -- the vote in the electoral college is very close. If McCain carries Virginia (which is too close to call) and Colorado (where the two candidates have been trading leads), and otherwise every other state keeps in the same column as it currently is in, then McCain wins.
Tertium Quid
September 2nd, 2008 11:44pm Report this commentI've not read the essay here, but just glancing at these comments about it, I sense that it has to do with who will win the US Presidency, McCain or Obama. Maybe the commenters also musing about this are Brits, or otherwise non-Yanks. I hope so. Let me save all of you any more trouble, if I may.
1. It doesn't matter who wins as between Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee, from different branches of the Republocrat storefront facade. It really, truly doesn't. Not a dime's
s worth of difference, as has been said before. Now, the way this whole thing is played in the media, you wouldn't think this is true. But take my word--it is. Don't start thinking it isn't, just because masses of Americans don't recognize it: they're (we're) always the last ones to figure these things out even about our own country. This can confuse non-Yanks, but don't let it: just remember what I'm telling you here.
2. If you want to think or (Heaven help you) worry about this anyway, Tweedle Dum (McCain) will win. There's never been the slightest doubt about it since the nominations were determined for both divisions of the party. Truly. Of course, we've got to keep on about it, to sell newspapers, entertain the hordes, keep them from getting restless, etc. But there's your answer: President McCain. Again, not that it matters, but since you're wondering.
3. Now you can go have some fun, do some other things.
You're welcome.
David Short
September 3rd, 2008 3:13pm Report this commentTertium Quid is right. As Gore Vidal said, the Democrats and Republicans are two wings of the same party.
We have reached this stage with Labour and Conservative here.
I could never understand why American colleagues felt vehemently Democratic (possibly because it just made them feel less guilty about being well-off and safe in a largely poor and dangerous world).
Same now with Labour here.
Meanwhile China is cleaning up in the rest of the world, while spending its defence budget more productively on controlling the South China Sea.
Ames Tiedeman
September 8th, 2008 3:47am Report this commentMcCain will win. The American people will never put a man in the White House who sat in a church for 20 years that was run by a pastor who hates America. The Democrats can dream all they want. When individual Americans are in their voting booth and they can go with either a patriotic American or vote for the man married to Michelle Obama, they will chose McCain. Any man that has a pastor who is a complete racist against the majority of Americans is not fit to be the Commander in Chief. The American people understand this. Of all people, Obama himself should recognize this. After all, isn't it Mr. Obama who keep telling everyone that "words matter?"
Bob Skye, Hoboken NJ
October 8th, 2008 7:55pm Report this commentAlong with the self-evident excuses as to the ways McCain should win the election, which we Yanks have long known and have subsequently overcome, the author seems to disregard recent attempts by Sara Palin to incite to riot. If the average beer-guzzling Joe out there had played crowds to scream "Kill him," and to toss racial epithets at innocent cameramen, they'd be in irons by now. McCain's feeble attempt to revive the Bundt has already comeback by smacking the candidate's not-so-hidden contempt for "That one.
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