David Cameron’s judgment day

This will be Cameron’s finest hour — or the scene of a lynching

Fraser Nelson

29 September 2007

This will be a make-or-break conference for the Tory leader

And there will be no shortage of entertainment. Graham Brady, the grammar schools rebel, will return to his subject at a fringe event on Tuesday, likely to be a rallying-point for anti-Cameron feeling. We can expect to hear plenty from Zac Goldsmith, who may be unable to contain his irritation that so much of his environmental policy review, published last week, has already been trashed. ‘He has no political experience and a big mouth, so we can expect him to sound off,’ says one shadow Cabinet member. ‘The rest of us will have to show iron discipline.’

Strikingly, David Davis has pulled out of all his fringe meetings. It is as if the shadow home secretary knows that his every word and aside would have been scrutinised for mischief, and turned into potentially misleading headlines. William Hague (increasingly tipped as a potential successor to Mr Cameron) has pledged to throw the disgruntled activists some red meat by turning up the volume of his calls for a referendum on the EU Treaty. But, as he knows better than most, controlling a Tory conference that does not want to be tamed is an impossible task. It is a wild beast, which can only be sedated by an opinion poll lead.

Unfortunately, the Blackpool conference has been structured in a way that maximises the potential for bedlam. Mr Cameron’s speech will be the final fixture of the week on Wednesday afternoon, thus ensuring a four-day escalation of tension where expectations may rise to a stratospheric level. Mr Brown delivered his speech on Monday, and confined his colleagues to a humbling seven minutes each, thus taking the fizz out of the conference instantly. So everything is riding on Mr Cameron’s speech.

George Osborne, his shadow chancellor, sets out what is needed in his interview with me on page 18 — from the fog of the policy reviews, a clear policy strategy must now emerge. He is not alone in this analysis. ‘David must provide that “click” moment,’ says another shadow Cabinet member. ‘To govern is to choose. And he must now choose his policies.’ The charge of haziness is becoming more potent with each passing month. And — to be fair — this is to be addressed.

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James B

September 27th, 2007 2:48pm Report this comment

It is quite correct that the marginal seats are where it is all happening, and not the Winter Gardens. Relentless targeted leaflets and letters, paid for by Lord Ashcroft can do far more to make up a swing voter's mind than the grumbling of a few discontended party members in Blackpool. Most voters simply do not pay attention to party conferences. It's only the political geeks - and in this category I include myself and just about everyone who contributes to this blog - who get excited about 4 days at the seaside in autumn. I assume that the Conservatives are conducting their own polls in the target seats just as Labour is. I would very much like to know what these polls are saying. That way we can know whether David Cameron's recent challenge to Gordon Brown to call an election now is based on hard evidence that, where the votes matter, his appeal is succeeding. Or whether it was pure bluff. So far as Blackpool is concerned, I simply can't see it being anything like a re-run of 2003, when IDS made a desperate and ultimately futile pitch for his own job against a backdrop of staged applause from CCO stooges.

Barbara Bishop

September 28th, 2007 9:36am Report this comment

Gordon Brown is waving Cameron off as if he were nought but a pesky midge on a Highland ramble. It is indeed deeply tragic that the Tories laboured and brought forth a Tony Blair clone just at the time when charisma was going out of fashion and sober substance was taking its place. Michael Howard never should have resigned after winning those seats at the last elections (it was always an odd decision for a winner to make?). But he didn't have the vision or apparently the will to "reframe" the Tories which is what was needed to capitalise the gains. So there you go.