Spectator/YouGov poll

Allister Heath

16 August 2006

But times have changed, and so has the state of public opinion. The dramatic extent of this shift is revealed in an exclusive new Spectator/YouGov poll which demolishes much of the received wisdom about the public’s perception of the struggle against terrorism, and shows surprisingly high levels of hawkishness. Almost three quarters of the British public are now convinced that we are fighting a new world war against extremist Islamic terrorists — and although they may not recognise the names, on this issue at least, most are in the same camp as leading US conservatives such as Eliot Cohen, Norman Podhoretz and Newt Gingrich. The public is also deeply concerned at how this new conflict is developing, with four out of five judging the West to be losing and the terrorists to be winning. Almost nobody believes that last week’s foiled plot to blow up a large number of transatlantic flights will be the last such attempt, or that the police and security services will be as effective next time; 86 per cent of respondents believe that Britain is likely to suffer a major terrorist attack within the next year.

What will stun Westminster most, however, is that the public is convinced that the key to winning this new global war against terrorists lies in a much more aggressive foreign policy, as well as in severe reductions in civil liberties in Britain. One of the most important lessons from the Spectator/YouGov poll is the growing chasm between the views of large portions of the chattering classes, including most of the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties, and the views of the population at large.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the public’s extraordinary dismissal of civil libertarian arguments. In a bitter blow to the Conservatives and the Labour Left, who have long opposed the policy, the public supports Tony Blair’s favourite option of detaining suspects without charge for up to 90 days by three to one (69 per cent to 23 per cent). When asked whether Britain should change its foreign policy in response to terrorism, just 12 per cent say that it should be made more conciliatory, against 53 per cent who say it should become more aggressive and 24 per cent who don’t want to change the current relatively tough stance.

Perhaps most controversially of all, the Spectator/YouGov poll reveals that by a majority of 55 per cent to 29 per cent the public supports the introduction of ‘passenger profiling’ by the authorities in airports. There is also mass support for tougher security at airports, regardless of inconvenience: almost two thirds say they feel safer as a result of increased airport security.

Despite endorsing passenger profiling — which would inevitably mean that Muslims and people of Middle Eastern and South Asian appearance would be singled out — half of respondents said that most British Muslims are moderates, which is good news for the future of community relations. However, over a quarter (28 per cent) disagreed and almost as many said they didn’t know; the mixed messages from Islamic ‘community leaders’ in the aftermath of last week’s terror plots — when their condemnations of terrorism were accompanied by carefully worded disclaimers, as well as by the increasing support within the community for the view that 9/11 and 7/7 had nothing to do with Muslims — may have helped fuel suspicions.