Can Dave stay in the lead?

The election sprint has turned into a marathon. Can Dave keep the lead?

13 October 2007

After a momentous week in politics which has seen a 14 point swing in the polls and an election called off, Fraser Nelson assesses the new political landscape. He warns Douglas Alexander and Ming Campbell to watch their backs in the months ahead and the rest of us not to expect an election until 2009 or maybe even 2010.

Deliciously, we can see the first glimpse of a new Labour split. There are grumblings among older Labour hands that Mr Brown only trusts his small, handpicked entourage and does not take advice from (or even acknowledge) outsiders. Team Brown, it is argued, was assembled to fight a long guerrilla war against Tony Blair and is ill-suited to the set-piece battles of government. But the Prime Minister is famous for placing a high premium on loyalty — and for being notoriously slow to accept outsiders. So little is expected to change.

Now that Westminster is settling down to the likelihood of an election in 2009 (with some even pencilling in May 2010) every party must now pace itself for a two- or three-year marathon. What Mr Brown himself plans remains a mystery. Even members of his Cabinet had expected there to be a big picture of some kind outlined in Tuesday’s pre-budget report — and were stunned when Mr Darling sat down after 33 minutes. ‘Perhaps it was an hour-long speech, with the pre-election passages removed,’ said one member. ‘We’ll never know.’

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M. Hristov

October 11th, 2007 12:44pm Report this comment

This is a very interesting analysis. Gordon Brown may have "something up his sleeve" but recent events suggest that he doesn't. I was amazed by the feebleness of his answer on Inheritance Tax. He simply saved married couples a trip to their solicitor, as the same effect could be got by establishing a discretionary trust. This is the second transparently misleading policy within a year. The first being the dropping of the 10% income tax band. I think that this is indicative of two problems. A lack of the imagination needed to produce genuinely new policies and a deteriorating economy.

C.Gatenby

October 12th, 2007 2:52am Report this comment

Brown and his aides' perceptions that Labour had the majoritysupport of the British people can only be described as misguided hubris. The only 'vision' Brown had was a 'clouded' one. His scuttling and bumbling and now an almost 'just-kidding' approach on floating the prospect that he would call a snap poll shows that the next two years is simply delaying the inevitable. The days of Tory glory are at hand.

colin martin

October 12th, 2007 10:29am Report this comment

The odds are against Brown. Every month that goes by the chances for Gov c*ck-ups increase whilst Blair's air-brushing means that Brown gets the blame for every mess since 1997. His only hope - to fool the Tories by going for it in May 2008. He simply said to Andrew Marr "no election" for the "next period": that's commonly understood to mean 28 days.

MK

October 18th, 2007 10:37am Report this comment

Many thanks once again for an erudite article, however the "knife-wielders" got to Ming before you had finished writing! I disagree about the delayed election. John Major probably postponed the 1992 election in which he received the largest number of votes ever cast. Even without the Sun's help he would probably have still won this one(who can fail to remember the Sheffield rally by Kinnock?!). Brown could yet emulate this feat and gain a fourth New Labour term, well that is if the economy does not collapse and the Cameroons decontamination becomes mucky!

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