Can Dave stay in the lead?

The election sprint has turned into a marathon. Can Dave keep the lead?

Fraser Nelson

13 October 2007

After a momentous week in politics which has seen a 14 point swing in the polls and an election called off, Fraser Nelson assesses the new political landscape. He warns Douglas Alexander and Ming Campbell to watch their backs in the months ahead and the rest of us not to expect an election until 2009 or maybe even 2010.

The Conservatives, however, are settling down for that rare privilege in politics: a revamp from a position of strength. A month ago I was told that if Mr Brown was scared away from holding an election, there would be radical change at Conservative headquarters — and that even Steve Hilton, for years Mr Cameron’s closest adviser, may take a step back. He was said to have been badly shaken by the grammar schools row. ‘He’s worked so hard, he may consider himself mentally spent — or at least due a break,’ said one source. Others who have seen Mr Hilton more recently say he has never been on better form. ‘He is fizzing with excitement and reckons he has at last cracked the message that the Tories need to win — not just social responsibility, but opportunity, responsibility and security,’ says one friend. Mr Cameron would, in any case, be likely to resist any diminution in Hilton’s role. A year ago, there were complaints that the two formed a closed duumvirate. Now the party is governed by a quartet, with the other two corners provided by Mr Osborne and Andy Coulson, the new communications director. ‘David loves the dynamic of these four,’ says a close ally. ‘He wouldn’t want it to change.’

Now would be the perfect time for Mr Osborne to move on — precisely because no one can accuse him of being a failure. He has a reasonable claim to being the most successful Tory shadow chancellor since Iain Macleod and visibly outshines Mr Darling. His decision to become part-time election co-ordinator has led to speculation that he may complete the transition by becoming party chairman — and hand his job to an older, more experienced MP. ‘We need a grey hair like William Hague,’ says one Cameroon. ‘Not that he has any hair.’ In any case, Mr Osborne is in a strong enough position to take his pick of the two roles.

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M. Hristov

October 11th, 2007 12:44pm Report this comment

This is a very interesting analysis. Gordon Brown may have "something up his sleeve" but recent events suggest that he doesn't. I was amazed by the feebleness of his answer on Inheritance Tax. He simply saved married couples a trip to their solicitor, as the same effect could be got by establishing a discretionary trust. This is the second transparently misleading policy within a year. The first being the dropping of the 10% income tax band. I think that this is indicative of two problems. A lack of the imagination needed to produce genuinely new policies and a deteriorating economy.

C.Gatenby

October 12th, 2007 2:52am Report this comment

Brown and his aides' perceptions that Labour had the majoritysupport of the British people can only be described as misguided hubris. The only 'vision' Brown had was a 'clouded' one. His scuttling and bumbling and now an almost 'just-kidding' approach on floating the prospect that he would call a snap poll shows that the next two years is simply delaying the inevitable. The days of Tory glory are at hand.

colin martin

October 12th, 2007 10:29am Report this comment

The odds are against Brown. Every month that goes by the chances for Gov c*ck-ups increase whilst Blair's air-brushing means that Brown gets the blame for every mess since 1997. His only hope - to fool the Tories by going for it in May 2008. He simply said to Andrew Marr "no election" for the "next period": that's commonly understood to mean 28 days.

MK

October 18th, 2007 10:37am Report this comment

Many thanks once again for an erudite article, however the "knife-wielders" got to Ming before you had finished writing! I disagree about the delayed election. John Major probably postponed the 1992 election in which he received the largest number of votes ever cast. Even without the Sun's help he would probably have still won this one(who can fail to remember the Sheffield rally by Kinnock?!). Brown could yet emulate this feat and gain a fourth New Labour term, well that is if the economy does not collapse and the Cameroons decontamination becomes mucky!

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