Can Dave stay in the lead?

The election sprint has turned into a marathon. Can Dave keep the lead?

13 October 2007

After a momentous week in politics which has seen a 14 point swing in the polls and an election called off, Fraser Nelson assesses the new political landscape. He warns Douglas Alexander and Ming Campbell to watch their backs in the months ahead and the rest of us not to expect an election until 2009 or maybe even 2010.

If Mr Cameron has also lost fear of Mr Brown, this gives him the chance to recast much of Tory policy. The review groups have finished their work, giving him the chance to take personal control of turning their findings into an eventual manifesto — which can now be drawn up at a sensible pace, rather than rushed out under duress. Expect the intellectuals most closely associated with the review to be sidelined to the ‘Tranquillity Room’ made famous by our own Tamzin Lightwater. Those forging the future of the Conservatives in the new ‘two-year war’ do not envisage a central role for Oliver Letwin. His shadow Cabinet critics say that he overcomplicates strategy, where clarity is required.

There is also the chance to respond to a shift in public mood, which Mr Brown accidentally compelled the Tories to test in Blackpool. Feelings about tax and spending have moved on, and the inheritance tax cut was more popular than any senior Conservative could have predicted. After many years running scared of the ‘Tory cuts’ taunt, which Labour will always use anyway, this could be a good juncture for an intellectually self-confident Tory party to depart from the straitjacket of Labour’s spending plans.

Perhaps the biggest problem for Mr Cameron could now be the Liberal Democrats. While Tories were celebrating at the postponement of the election, Sir Menzies Campbell’s heart would have sunk. His survival as party leader was dependent on the prospect of an immediate election — his party’s recognition there was no time to find someone better able to halt the exodus of voters from the Lib Dem box. His party was polling 30 per cent under Charles Kennedy and has now dropped to 11 per cent. Two out of three Lib Dem supporters have walked.

If the party has any sense of self-preservation, Sir Menzies will be gone soon, perhaps by Christmas. If it chooses Nick Clegg as his successor, then things could get tricky for Mr Cameron. Currently, the party’s home affairs spokesman looks, talks and acts like a Tory. Yet — unlike David Laws — he espouses ideas that are not quite right-wing enough to repel the party’s membership. Both Labour and the Tories have been feasting on the disintegration of Lib Dem support. Few parties allow themselves to perish in this way.

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M. Hristov

October 11th, 2007 12:44pm Report this comment

This is a very interesting analysis. Gordon Brown may have "something up his sleeve" but recent events suggest that he doesn't. I was amazed by the feebleness of his answer on Inheritance Tax. He simply saved married couples a trip to their solicitor, as the same effect could be got by establishing a discretionary trust. This is the second transparently misleading policy within a year. The first being the dropping of the 10% income tax band. I think that this is indicative of two problems. A lack of the imagination needed to produce genuinely new policies and a deteriorating economy.

C.Gatenby

October 12th, 2007 2:52am Report this comment

Brown and his aides' perceptions that Labour had the majoritysupport of the British people can only be described as misguided hubris. The only 'vision' Brown had was a 'clouded' one. His scuttling and bumbling and now an almost 'just-kidding' approach on floating the prospect that he would call a snap poll shows that the next two years is simply delaying the inevitable. The days of Tory glory are at hand.

colin martin

October 12th, 2007 10:29am Report this comment

The odds are against Brown. Every month that goes by the chances for Gov c*ck-ups increase whilst Blair's air-brushing means that Brown gets the blame for every mess since 1997. His only hope - to fool the Tories by going for it in May 2008. He simply said to Andrew Marr "no election" for the "next period": that's commonly understood to mean 28 days.

MK

October 18th, 2007 10:37am Report this comment

Many thanks once again for an erudite article, however the "knife-wielders" got to Ming before you had finished writing! I disagree about the delayed election. John Major probably postponed the 1992 election in which he received the largest number of votes ever cast. Even without the Sun's help he would probably have still won this one(who can fail to remember the Sheffield rally by Kinnock?!). Brown could yet emulate this feat and gain a fourth New Labour term, well that is if the economy does not collapse and the Cameroons decontamination becomes mucky!

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