The Tory quest for a fiscal Holy Grail is doomed
8 November 2008
Brown’s golden rules have been exposed as a sham, says Irwin Stelzer, but the Tory response has been feeble. Their target should be the PM’s feathering of Old Labour nests
Which is why the Tory response has been so feeble. Yes, David Cameron and George Osborne are right to remind voters that Britain is likely to suffer from this crisis long after other countries recover: that’s the cost of Brown’s profligacy, growth-stunting taxes and initiative-sapping welfare state. And they are surely right that future generations will pay the bill for the current borrowing binge.
But the Tories have so far been unable to demonstrate that the cost of the Brown programme will exceed the costs the economy would bear in its absence. Nor have they explained why they were willing to adopt Brown’s spending plans when the economy was booming — and government spending should have been cut — but oppose those spending plans now, when they are needed. In short, they have not augmented whingeing with a coherent alternative programme.
Which brings us back to rules. There are no fiscal rules that serve an economy well in all circumstances. The Tory hunt for that holy grail is doomed to fail. There are only pragmatic course adjustments. Judgments. Priorities consistent with one’s governing philosophy. Which is what Osborne should be looking for now. The problem is not that Brown plans still another spending and borrowing spree, it is that he plans to spend the money in ways that won’t speed the recovery — by the time his infrastructure projects come off the drawing-boards the recession will be over — and that reflect his hard-left, redistributionist philosophy. The military is to remain under-equipped and underpaid; expansion of the welfare state is to proceed apace. Millions are to be spent on translators for non-English-speaking felons, while prison capacity remains so inadequate that dangerous criminals are released early. The creation of useless public-sector jobs proceeds, to the profit of the Guardian’s ad department, while police become a rare sight on the increasingly mean streets of many cities.
Osborne can’t mount a credible attack on Brown’s theory of recession-fighting because the Prime Minister has it broadly right. What he can do is point out that it is being implemented in a way that serves the interests of Old Labour constituencies, rather than the nation. And suggest a better way of borrowing, spending and shoring up financial institutions. There will be plenty of time for recriminations. But voters will find them of interest only if they are accompanied with plans to get them out of the deep hole which Gordon Brown helped dig, and into which he has plunged them.
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David
November 6th, 2008 9:14am Report this comment"Still, Brown has finally got it right"
I'm pretty sure Irwin has been telling us Brown has got it right every year for the past decade.
Tony Makara
November 6th, 2008 10:18am Report this commentThe Conservative leadership fails to understand the need for public works programmes as a way of keeping people in work at a time of recession. The cost in terms of welfare and social housing for those who lose jobs will be far greater in the long term.
David Cameron has talked about supporting the supply side with transport infrastructure and the recession now provides an opportunity for government to make that sort of investment.
The more people we can keep in work the more property owners will emerge from this recession. This is very important if we want to preserve the housing market and support social mobility.
perdix
November 6th, 2008 9:12pm Report this commentNoone has a coherent economic policy and with shocks like today's interest rate cut it's not surprising.
Cogito Ergosum
November 7th, 2008 12:09am Report this commentA former work colleague went out to Korea. In two years they turned a green field into a working power station.
We could do likewise if we really wanted to. Roads, power stations, military equipment...
Dwight Vandryver
November 7th, 2008 4:13am Report this commentThe welfare state costs the UK over £300bn per year, the NHS an extra £100bn per year. The list goes on. Collective personal debt is over £1 trillion. Brown has pledged half that to try to ameliorate the UK's banking crisis, on top of the ludicrously increasing government and PFI debt of his own making.
And Mr Stelzer tells us that Brown "has it broadly right" to spend his way out of recession? Mr Stelzer needs a rethink. If new contracts are put out for tender for "works benefiting the public", there is no guarantee that these would not be won by foreign firms employing their own staff. In fact, they probably would be, but the spin Labour would put on them would be tantamount to untruths. At the end of the day, Brown's spending spree will have to be paid back through taxation, and who wants to be around when the S hits the F? With this as a backdrop, it's no wonder that the Tories are somewhat reticent.
Ashley Slater
November 7th, 2008 10:26am Report this commentThe horrendous spectre of Brown spending another full term in office is on the cards after the Glenrothes by-election. In fact, I predict here and now it'll happen. Brown has buried us up to our necks in doo-doo but he'll get away with it because the people of this country still associate the failure of the financial institutions with the Tories. Fat cats are Tories and Cameron will never gain power as long as the Tories are seen as a bunch of Old Etonians. I'm sorry, you Old Etonians out there, but you're not everyone's cup of Earl Grey. Forget about fiscal policy, forget about the absurdity of Tory 'green' policy, forget anout any policy. It's image that matters, as Obama has proved, and the public image is one of George Osborne sipping martinis on a yacht. That's a very strong image. (Mandelsson is a Tory as far as most people are concerned so don't think his presence counts). But the most important point is that, for the vast majority of British people, Tories equal big business and right now big business is Public Enemy Number One, just ahead of Jonathan Ross and Gary Glitter. Brown, by single-handedly wrecking the economy, has unwittingly ensured his own survival. Genius! Joseph Heller couldn't make it up.
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