Brown’s premiership will be short

11 April 2007

But there is some hope. Brown and some of his advisers have begun to whisper that the only way out of poverty is through work. This is an extension of the Chancellor’s deeply held belief in the virtue of work, learnt in his formative years. This belief is confirmed by his own success, which he is well aware is attributable neither to Blairite charm nor to a pleasing speaking style. But as always with this complicated man, there is a question. Will he recognise that it is the gap between what one can earn at work and what one can get from the state by avoiding work that determines how many choose the sofa and television, and how many the less pleasant workplace? Or will he cling to the belief that everyone is like him — eager to work almost whatever the economic incentive, because there is so much good to be done in the world that staying home is not an option? We have one — in my view, nervous-making — clue from his repeated assertion that healthcare workers are dedicated public servants imbued with a desire to help the sick, no financial incentive necessary — which of course makes one wonder why he felt it necessary to lavish huge wage increases on them.

We can be more certain about one thing: Brown has been reflecting on his plunging poll numbers, and does not agree with his coterie that all he need do is wait for a Brown bounce when he moves into No. 10. When he reflects on domestic policy, my guess is that he will decide that his polling negatives have nothing to do with the fact that his government now takes 43 per cent of the nation’s income. His advisers agree, which is why they see his appearance and style, rather than his policies, as requiring alteration.