Alastair Campbell told the crowd: ‘Unite behind Gordon to win’. But can they?

12 May 2007

Fraser Nelson says that the departure of Tony Blair and the arrival of Gordon Brown will mark a clear-out of personnel and a marked change in style. The risk is that the new Prime Minister becomes a force for division and the object of derision

A plausible argument is advanced by Mr Cruddas’s supporters. Labour is becoming disconnected from its base and is in danger of becoming a ‘virtual party’ rather than a national movement. For example, last Thursday’s elections left Labour with no representation in 88 English local authorities. A political map of the wards shows not so much as a pinprick of red in most of the Southwest. So, to outsiders, the deputy leadership race will be a useful yardstick: if Labour chooses Mr Cruddas, it is prepared to confront this problem.

Rory Bremner recently observed that there are two people in British public life whose views on domestic politics are a mystery: the Queen and the Chancellor. Now that he faces no serious opponent himself, the deputy leadership race is Mr Brown’s best chance to end his pseudo-regal silence. When nominations close next Thursday, about four or five names are likely to go through. Eight hustings will follow, the first to be held on 20 May (it was moved from the 19th when it was pointed out that this clashed with the FA cup final — and party managers conceded that no one would turn up).

Assuming he addresses these events, it will be hard for Mr Brown to remain as Delphic as he has been, or to plead purdah (as his aides so often have). The Conservatives are convinced that he has a reserve of clever and politically powerful ideas, and will swap his statistical autobabble for a new style which will set the tone for his leadership. Interestingly, Mr Brown’s allies are urging caution — on policy, at least. He has been in power for ten years, they say: don’t expect a sudden revolution.