Alastair Campbell told the crowd: ‘Unite behind Gordon to win’. But can they?

12 May 2007

Fraser Nelson says that the departure of Tony Blair and the arrival of Gordon Brown will mark a clear-out of personnel and a marked change in style. The risk is that the new Prime Minister becomes a force for division and the object of derision

Which leaves us with old-fashioned machine politics, who’s up, who’s down, and personal positioning. Warned not to expect immediate fireworks to match the granting of independence to the Bank of England, Westminster is instead fixated upon Mr Brown’s coming reshuffle. Mr Reid rightly said that his departure has given Mr Brown ‘maximum flexibility’ so that every great office of state will soon be vacant. Margaret Beckett unwittingly ended what little chance she had of survival at the Foreign Office after releasing an 11-page summary of her achievements last month. It was a compendium of gimmicks and clichés, reinforcing how foreign policy has stalled under her tenure.

The Foreign Office believes that Jack Straw is campaigning to return there, payback for his role fronting Mr Brown’s leadership campaign (if it can really be called a campaign). David Miliband is being tipped for either the Home Office or the Foreign Office. No one with any ambition wants to be Mr Brown’s Chancellor — knowing that all the key spending decisions have been taken until April 2011. The Chancellor is likely to dismantle the power base he created — as Mr Blair tried and failed to do with the Treasury after the last election. The last thing Prime Minister Brown needs is his own overmighty Chancellor. If Gordon is the new Tony, there will be no new Gordon.

Mr Brown will by now have decided who to take with him to 10 Downing Street and what type of spin operation he will have. ‘The spin will be “no spin”,’ as one supporter puts it. But who will sell the human, sports-loving-man-of-the-people side to Mr Brown, as Charlie Whelan once did so well? Kevin Maguire, the respected Daily Mirror columnist, would be perfect for the job but is growing tired of ruling himself out. The top job will stay with Damian McBride — or ‘Damian McPoison’ as Peter Mandelson christened him.