Yuschenko: historical times

Mark Leonard

16 May 2007

History has a habit of repeating itself in Ukraine — first as destiny and then as what Yuschenko calls ‘virtual politics’. You need go no further than Independence Square — the site of the original Orange revolution — to see what he means. The revolutionary tents have returned to the square, but this time the protestors they house are clad in blue rather than orange. They no longer chant for Yuschenko, but rather hail the other Victor, the Russian-backed Yanukovich, who is challenging the decision to dissolve parliament. Unlike the eruption of people power which saw millions risk their lives for democracy, today’s protesters are hired guns; bussed in from the countryside to protest for $20 a day. This pastiche of the Orange revolution in reverse shows one side of virtual politics: faking democracy and pluralism as an authoritarian tool. The other feature of virtual politics is that political decisions and loyalties are influenced by non-political factors — personal economic gain rather than public opinion.

Ukraine’s perpetual crisis has sapped the legitimacy of the Orange revolution — preventing the government from meeting pent-up expectations for reform. When I ask Yuschenko what has been achieved he sounds strangely like Tony Blair, rattling off reams of defensive statistics: ‘We have results we have never had before. GDP growth has gone up from 4 to 8 per cent. Foreign direct investment has grown to $10 billion. Unemployment has fallen. Average salaries have gone up by 20 per cent.’ But around the country, it is the revolution’s strongest supporters who are most disillusioned. Yulia Mostovaya, a distinguished journalist, speaks for many when she says, ‘It is easier to say what has not happened since the Orange revolution. There have not been systematic and well-planned reforms. The unification of the country has not taken place. We have not got a more healthy judicial system. We haven’t got an effective constitution. We haven’t got an effective fight against corruption. Have we become part of the WTO? No. Have we got a Nato membership action plan? No. Have we managed to move away from the Russian needle of cheap gas? No. Has privatisation become more transparent? No.’