But while Russia has been active in undermining his regime with pipeline politics and support for Yanukovich, the EU has been surprisingly passive. Yuschenko addresses the subject cautiously, refusing to offer more than the mildest criticism. ‘I’ll be frank, we were expecting some more intensive dialogue. The main thing is to have the clear prospect of joining the EU.’ But it is precisely this prospect which continues to elude him. No sooner had Ukraine’s political transformation begun than the EU went through a crisis of its own with the rejection of the constitutional treaty. European offers of ‘deep free trade’ are a poor surrogate for the promise of eventual membership, or real progress towards a liberalised visa regime.
Ukraine continues to be torn between two worlds, floating in the realm of virtual politics. Its President has once again returned from the dead. At the beginning of the year he was buried in the opinion polls — dismissed by friend and foe alike as weak and directionless. But in the past few weeks Yuschenko has shown hidden steel — launching a surprising fight-back that has doubled his poll ratings, and forced Yanukovich to concede new elections. The factions are still fighting about the timetable, but it is possible that the results could lead to a new Orange coalition.
Where the country goes after that is an open question. The Orange revolution has removed the fear and repression of the Kuchma years, but has yet to replace them with democratic stability. Is Yuschenko a Ukranian Yeltsin whose chaotic rule may pave the path for a strongman like Putin, or is he a Vaclav Havel figure whose moral leadership will prepare the path for EU membership and democracy? That is the big question of our time. And if Yuschenko turns out to be Yeltsin, we in the EU will have to take our share of the responsibility, and be forced to live with the tragic consequences.
Mark Leonard (www.markleonard.net) is executive director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a pan-European think-tank that will be launched in late 2007.
More articles from: Mark Leonard | this section
Post this entry to: del.icio.us | Digg | Newsvine | NowPublic | Reddit
Advertisement
1 Terry shouldn’t be captain, but that should be Capello’s decision to make - Rod Liddle
2 Snow? What snow? - Rod Liddle
3 JFK: The Nastiest President of the Twentieth Century? - Alex Massie
4 Do we really need to know more about Gary Speed’s death? - Rod Liddle
5 Scottish Labour Embrace the Logic of Independence - Alex Massie
1,700 Unusual Christmas Presents Request Catalogue 01935 815 195 Quote SPEC10 for 10% discount www.presentfinder.co.uk
Pimilco based Florist with online ordering Web: www.olivebranch.net Tel: 020 7630 1868 Fax: 020 7233 8844
62 Shore Road, Warsash, Southampton, SO31 9FT Telephone: 01489 578867 Web site: www.ruffs.co.uk
Apollo Magazine | Corporate | Advertising | Privacy | Terms
Spectator, 22 Old Queen Street, London, SW1H 9HP
All Articles and Content Copyright ©2012 by The Spectator | All Rights Reserved
Be the first to comment on this article!
Back to top