Yuschenko: historical times

Mark Leonard

16 May 2007

But while Russia has been active in undermining his regime with pipeline politics and support for Yanukovich, the EU has been surprisingly passive. Yuschenko addresses the subject cautiously, refusing to offer more than the mildest criticism. ‘I’ll be frank, we were expecting some more intensive dialogue. The main thing is to have the clear prospect of joining the EU.’ But it is precisely this prospect which continues to elude him. No sooner had Ukraine’s political transformation begun than the EU went through a crisis of its own with the rejection of the constitutional treaty. European offers of ‘deep free trade’ are a poor surrogate for the promise of eventual membership, or real progress towards a liberalised visa regime.

Ukraine continues to be torn between two worlds, floating in the realm of virtual politics. Its President has once again returned from the dead. At the beginning of the year he was buried in the opinion polls — dismissed by friend and foe alike as weak and directionless. But in the past few weeks Yuschenko has shown hidden steel — launching a surprising fight-back that has doubled his poll ratings, and forced Yanukovich to concede new elections. The factions are still fighting about the timetable, but it is possible that the results could lead to a new Orange coalition.

Where the country goes after that is an open question. The Orange revolution has removed the fear and repression of the Kuchma years, but has yet to replace them with democratic stability. Is Yuschenko a Ukranian Yeltsin whose chaotic rule may pave the path for a strongman like Putin, or is he a Vaclav Havel figure whose moral leadership will prepare the path for EU membership and democracy? That is the big question of our time. And if Yuschenko turns out to be Yeltsin, we in the EU will have to take our share of the responsibility, and be forced to live with the tragic consequences.

Mark Leonard (www.markleonard.net) is executive director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a pan-European think-tank that will be launched in late 2007.