‘If Brown pulls a stunt over Iraq...’

2 June 2007

James Forsyth talks to insiders in Washington and London about the biggest dilemma facing the next Prime Minister — and finds that, as much as Brown might like to break free of an unpopular conflict, his options are severely limited

The only face-to-face meeting between Bush and Brown was in April when Bush ‘dropped by’ on a meeting between Brown and the national security adviser, Stephen Hadley. But the meeting seems to have made little impression on Bush, whose view of Brown is that he is ‘a good fellow’ — but that’s a standard Bush compliment. It’s the phrase he used to describe Putin after all.

Some Bush allies, though, don’t expect the relationship to run smoothly. One senior House Republican is scathing about Brown: ‘There are about two people who give a fig about Gordon Brown in Washington. We see a guy who doesn’t try with us, who looks like he’ll play politics with Iraq. Looks like a socialist. He ain’t Tony Blair, and that’s a bad start. He should remember one thing if he’s thinking of pulling a stunt over Iraq: a brand new friendship between us and Sarkozy is just a phone call away.’

Many in Washington see Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the new French President, as more likely candidates than Brown to be Bush’s ‘new Blair’. However, one former Bush staffer expects Bush to figure Brown out quickly, and argues that as the President has almost no cards to play he’ll be extremely keen to flatter Brown when they meet. In a reversal of the usual power dynamic, it is the American President who needs the British Prime Minister. Brownian pet projects like the push for universal education in Africa could soon find themselves rising to the top of the international agenda.

The real political test for Brown will come as the US debates Iraq this autumn and then again next spring; the speed of developments in Washington could leave Brown scrambling to keep up. If Congress turns decisively against the war and refuses to fund it without a specified departure date, then Brown risks the indignity of appearing to be swept along in the US wake as much as Blair supposedly was. Yet, as we have seen, if Brown moves to place himself firmly ahead of the internal American debate by ordering a rapid withdrawal, he risks being held responsible for the consequences of that policy, which will not be pretty. It’s Catch-22.