The final Blair–Brown battle

16 June 2007

Fraser Nelson says that Tony Blair’s swansong summit next week is fraught with danger for Gordon Brown. The last thing the next Prime Minister wants in his in-tray is a new EU constitution that he has to sell to the British public

Here lies a fundamental difference between them. Mr Brown’s interest so far has been in keeping Britain safe from what he sees as the EU’s more dangerous ideas. He has little concern for the French and the Germans: if the rest of Europe wants to ignore his advice, well, it’s their funeral. The failures of the Continental economies have been grist to the mill of his Budget speeches. Mr Blair, by contrast, is a committed European who sees a providential role for Britain in the EU — he still talks of our European ‘destiny’ — and genuinely believes he can steer the EU to a more pro-market path.

This is why there is such excitement in No. 10 about next week’s summit. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, who will chair the gathering, is already implementing some economic reform in Germany, and Nicolas Sarkozy won the French election planning what he describes as a Thatcher-style revolution. ‘It is an incredible window of opportunity,’ says a No. 10 official. ‘Sarkozy and Merkel are both pro-reform. Things are moving Blair’s way. To have the three of them sitting together will form an incredible power dynamic.’

But will the same not be true for future summits, with Mr Brown in charge? The feeling in No. 10 is that he lacks the diplomatic skills — and has no interest in the European game which has fascinated the Prime Minister for so long. ‘Blair would spend hours in No. 10 calling any European leader you wanted him to,’ says one Foreign Office source. ‘He’d really put in the effort. Brown’s attitude is more, “Here is the moral high ground, and there I sit.”’

They are waiting for him in Brussels. The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, told The Spectator last July that Mr Brown would have to change his tactics — or, as he put it, ‘You cannot go to a beefeaters’ club and say you are a vegetarian. You have no influence.’ His rather touching assumption is that Mr Brown will seek as much influence in Europe as Mr Blair has done, and is driven by the same desire to save the EU from itself. Yet all the signs point in the opposite direction.