Douglas Davis says that if Hamas holds out it will shift the balance of power in the Middle East further towards Iran and the radicals
The Hamas strategy, like that of its Hezbollah role model, is based on waging a war of attrition using relatively advanced weapons — improvised explosive devices, anti-tank missiles and rocket-propelled grenades — as well as car bombs and suicide bombers, male and female. With Israeli troops drained by their elusive enemy, Hamas hoped to intensify its bombardment of Israel’s southern towns, while using the Palestinian, Arab and Western media to generate sympathy for their cause. In such circumstances, Hamas would encourage the international community to pressure Israel into accepting a ceasefire and claim a famous victory.
That, according to Israeli sources, was the Hamas battle plan. Israel’s priority will be to complete its mission — the destruction of Hamas’s military capability — and get out of Gaza as quickly as possible in order to minimise the risk to its own forces and to Gaza’s civilian population.
What is the endgame? From Hamas’s point of view, victory would be a badly mauled Israel retreating from Gaza with its tail between its legs while its rockets, missiles and mortars continue to fall on Israel’s southern population centres. Business as usual.
Israel’s exit strategy is, not surprisingly, somewhat different. They insist they are not intent on regime change in Gaza. The Israelis, say my sources, would be content to pursue a policy of containment: a ceasefire that leaves Hamas (minus its rockets) in place, along with the sanctions regime — the status quo ante. In addition, Israel would demand the permanent closure of the hundreds of tunnels linking Gaza to Egypt’s Sinai Desert, a conduit which Iran has used to channel weapons, instructors and finance to Hamas. Notably, Tony Blair mentioned this on Tuesday as the key to the ceasefire. Israel would also like international monitors along its border with Gaza. Such a formula is likely to win the quiet support of most Arab regimes.
The abiding tragedy of Gaza is that when Israel unilaterally withdrew its troops and settlers three years ago, it expected that this would be the first step in the creation of a nascent Palestinian state. It would also serve as a model for the far more traumatic business of evacuating troops and settlers from the West Bank. The pity of it all is that, for many Israelis, the experience of Gaza has demonstrated that territorial withdrawal does not make them safer, but more vulnerable.
Douglas Davis is a former senior editor of the Jerusalem Post.
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Bickers
January 8th, 2009 1:55pm Report this commentAs long as Hamas insist on destroying Israel they cannot cry foul when a democratic country like Israel is, decides to defend it citizens from rocket attacks.
The citizens of Gaza and the Palestinians at large need to decide whether they wish to continue in the role of victims or vote in a Governement that commits itself to a two State solution.
The shame is that Arafat had an equitable solution on the table that Clinton brokered then walked - that was the sign that some Palestinians (Hamas) have no interest in a solution, just the destruction and elimination of Israel.
Jed Nightingale
January 8th, 2009 9:34pm Report this commentIf the EU, UN , and other international organizations had been more vocal in condemning the Hamas rockets against Israel over the last few years and Egypt would have stopped the contraband of weapons flowing through Egyptian/Gazan tunnels, this crisis could have been avoided. Of course the world gets up in arms when Israel finally gets sufficiently fed up and starts flexing her muscles. I cannot phantom Britain being rocketed by the IRA year after year and doing nothing and for that matter the holier than-thou Turks.
Bob T
January 9th, 2009 11:55am Report this comment"No one, of course, enjoyed seeing chunks of the Gaza Strip reduced to rubble or Palestinian civilians killed and injured..." Really? You obviously haven't been keeping up to speed with the comment boards on the Telegraph, or WAPO, for that matter, where the Zionist cheer-leaders are quite open about their desire to see as many Palestinians as possible killed.
Stephen
January 9th, 2009 12:31pm Report this commentSo long as Israel keeps the Palestinians penned up in the west bank and the Gaza Strip with no hope and keeps illegally occupying Palestinian land and builds a great big wall around them,what do they expect???!!! The only way for this to end long term is for the Israels to realise that the Palestinians have as much right to live there as they do, and to deal with it. Otherwise ultimately they will lose. PLus lets not forget that Hamas was democratically elected into power in the Gaza strip. With Israel cutting off all aid and travel to the strip you could make a case for self defence in hamas's case.
George Kronfli
January 9th, 2009 2:04pm Report this commentPathetic pro-Zionist drivel. "Modertae Arab States" indeed.Really? You mean the autoctratic, terrorist finanacing anti-Christian regimes like Saudi Arabia? No wonder they feel at one with Israel, the original terrorist state. Or have you conveniently forgotten the Irgun and the killing of British soldiers?
Robert C D Kirkwood
January 9th, 2009 6:48pm Report this commentWhat evidence does the writer have that the attack damage to and loss of life at the school was 'unintended?'
Peter
January 9th, 2009 7:22pm Report this comment"Douglas Davis is a former senior editor of the Jerusalem Post"
And none of us expect such a person to do more than spout Israeli propaganda. Why bother publishing this rubbish? The answer is simple: for civilised people, Israel has now gone too far and has lost all support.
Nick Barker
January 9th, 2009 8:46pm Report this commentEvery time I see a Douglas Davis article in the Spectator, my heart sinks. Everything he writes could be straight out of an AIPAC press release, and is tendentious, weakly argued rubbish.
Brian Metcalf
January 9th, 2009 11:39pm Report this commentIslam makes no bones about the fact that it intends to take over the World little by little, starting with Britain. The extremists have one fate for Israel. Destruction. If you want this all to happen then back Hamas, Hezbollah, the Taleban and Iran. I personally identify more with the democratic State of Israel. Interesting to note the consistent and entirely expected reaction of the Jew Haters of this planet. Unlike David Davies (who has lived in the Middle East and understands what is really going on) these implacable opponents of Israel provide not a shred of balance in their comments.
Alexander Express
January 10th, 2009 12:28am Report this commentIncrdibl nonsense, they care more about crucifixations than socialism?
Autor
January 10th, 2009 12:34am Report this commentYeah,the unintended attack on the school, werent there rumors of shells from that school and last year hadnt some Hamas militants visited it?
The biggest problem seems to the that Israel shoots very bad. They dont have a target and are bombing all of Gaza for some snipers.
Ben
January 10th, 2009 1:25am Report this comment"..Or have you conveniently forgotten the Irgun and the killing of British soldiers?.."
Or have you conveniently forgotten the anti-Jewish policies of the Attlee-Bevin government, and the Churchill-Eden government that preceded it? These policies condemned millions of European Jews to death at the hands of the Germans, Jews who could have been saved. By shutting the gates of immigration to Palestine, and refusing to provide refuge elsewhere to the Jewish masses, Britain effectively corralled the Jews in occupied Europe where they could be murdered. To describe armed resistance to the uniformed enforcers of these crimes as "terrorists" is an act of moral illiteracy.
David Short
January 12th, 2009 3:10pm Report this commentHow the BBC can assume they are impartial in its Israeli reportage, which is required by the Charter, is beyond me.
No one with any scruples or morality should accept money from the BBC, and that includes people on the Spectator.
Nachum Nigel Froumin
January 13th, 2009 2:05am Report this commentThe Professional Protesters Preference is always for Israel Bashing. Where were they - and where are they - when 30000 Moslems in Afghanistan have been killed since 9/11? - when shias and sunnis are blowing each other up (amounting to thousands so far) in Iraq? - when the tyrant Mugabi has caused the deaths of his own countrymen? when a million Israelis, Arab and Jew, were under Hizbulla indiscriminate rocket fire, being killed and traumatised in 2006? when, for the past 8 years, 100,000 Israelis have been under similar bombardment from the Islamic Militants in Gaza? when NATO killed innocent civilians in Kosovo? when young women are publicly hanged in Iran?
Is it a "lack of proportion" Or maybe just one-sided hate? To me it looks like the PPP ("Professional Protesters' Preference") finds its way to the ignorant and gullible hearts of the news channel managers as well as the Guardian
Nachum Nigel Froumin
January 13th, 2009 2:08am Report this comment11/01/2009
Day 15 of Cast Lead offensive v. Hamas
I heard that the lack of domestic gas supplies in freezing southern Bulgaria has caused the deaths of many old people due to hypothermia.
All because the Russians couldn't wait for their money. How anti social and avaricious can you get?
How about a UN Security council resolution condemning GasProm and the Russian Govt for inhumanity, disproportionate response and an immediate resumption of humanitarian supplies to relieve the suffering of innocent civilians who always pay their debts and just want to live peacefully as they always have without being at the mercy of criminal profiteers.
Any ideas?
Why did the ICRC agree to be interviewed about the possibility of war crimes when the story broke about the UNRWA building where civilians were supposedly taking shelter before there was there any attempt to independently verify the story? Is the game just “believe the first thing you hear” and run to the international orgs and the UN complaining and finger pointing. I am always amazed how it is that no less than 1 minute after the news of an explosion the number count of the dead is immediately ready, neatly divided up into categories of fighters, non combatant civilians – men, women and children. All the false stories staged and set up by the Arabs themselves, or actual real stories exaggerated and pulled out of context – from Mohammad Dura (still alive maybe) Kfar Kana in Lebanon and “Jenin Jenin” are nothing less than propaganda – swallowed by the sensation (and promotion) hungry BBC and Al Jazeera journalists – designed to besmirch Israel’s name and to whip up the agony and the protests – so that there will be more violence, more bloodshed and more juicy stories to report on.
By the way: why don’t I hear anything from the reporters about how the ICRC is insisting that the kidnapped Israeli conscripted soldier Gilad Shalit, held prisoner and allowed no correspondence or visiting rights for about 3 years now immediately be given his human rights by those Hamas militants holding him? Maybe it’s because they are not doing any insisting – being busy instead with Israel’s supposed war crimes. The hypocrisy and double-think that these UN Orgs allow themselves – aided and abetted by the BBC gives one pause. Why do they think that they are not allowed into the Gaza conflict zone? I think it’s so that they can’t have direct access to the lies and the means to propagate them. In the meantime, they can have truthful direct access to the war crimes Hamas is committing by firing rockets directly at civilian targets inside Israel.
DJames
January 13th, 2009 8:36am Report this comment"..Or have you conveniently forgotten the Irgun and the killing of British soldiers?.."
“.. Or you conveniently forgotten the vital role the Jewish Brigade (SIG), a British unit organized from German-speaking Jewish volunteers of Palestine. The SIG infiltrated German lines, performing commando and sabotage operations in the war against the Axis forces in the Western Desert Campaign of WW II. The SIG obtained critical German military information for the British. They participated in “Operation Agreement”. The SIG comprised of German-speaking Palestinian Jews, including the Palmach, Haganah and the Irgun. The British owe an untold debt of gratitude to the SIG.
Montana Red Dog
January 13th, 2009 12:26pm Report this comment"Hamas is primarily an Islamist movement that is concerned less about social welfare, education and street lighting than it is about whether to introduce lashings, amputations and, believe it or not, crucifixions as instruments of punishment in Gaza’s criminal justice system"
Actually, I don't believe it just because the author says it. What evidence does he have for this startling assertion?
DJames
January 16th, 2009 3:57pm Report this commentMontana Red Dog,
Both Hamas and Hizbollah are mentored and financed by Iran. Embedded in the Iranian penal code is the right of execution of 9 yr girls. Last year Iran executed a 10 yr old girl.
Hamas and Hizbollah embrace the same radical form of Islam.
Lashings, amputations, beheadings, hangings, stonings already take place in Iran and other Middle Eastern Islamic states. Surely you are aware of this! Go online and read the Arab and Iranian press. Or google for facts. You will come up with pages and pages of Human Rights bodies condemning these practices.
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