You think Abraham Lincoln had it tough?

14 January 2009

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James Forsyth says that Barack Obama will need all his remarkable talents to confront an extraordinary set of challenges — not only the economy, but global security

Word is that Obama wants the stimulus to pass with 80 votes in the Senate. The tax cut on offer should make it possible to garner considerable Republican support. If Obama achieves this, he will have even more momentum than he does now and be perfectly positioned to make a successful effort on health care, the Democratic goal that so comprehensively eluded Clinton.

Whether Obama can achieve this depends heavily on Congressional Democrats. Already they have forced him to withdraw one proposed tax cut. The more they force him to indulge in horse-trading, the weaker his position will be, and the more Republicans will be able to oppose the package on the grounds that the President has caved in to his own side. This is such a big and risky bill that Obama needs bipartisan support; Bill Clinton passed a far smaller economic package in his first year with only Democratic support to disastrous effect.

It will be tempting for Obama to be completely focused on the economy in his first year. But that would be a mistake; the state of the world does not allow him that luxury.

There are three known foreign policy dangers that will, along with the economy, determine whether or not his first term is a success. First is the risk of Pakistan becoming a failed state. There is actually not much America can do about this, save be prepared for the worst-case scenario of a nuclear-armed country with a terrorism problem descending into chaos.

On the second challenge, stopping Iran from going nuclear, Obama has far more options. It is crucial that he embarks on direct diplomacy with Iran early on in his presidency: he’ll need as much time as possible to build domestic and international support for more forceful action, should that prove necessary. Obama will never have more diplomatic capital than he does at the beginning of his presidency, and he should be prepared to spend the bulk of it on persuading other countries to join a blockade of Iran if Tehran will not peaceably abandon its nuclear ambitions (Iran imports its petrol, so a blockade would cripple the country).

Finally, Obama needs to accomplish his promised pull-out from Iraq without squandering the gains of the surge. Ironically, it is Iraq — the issue that propelled Obama to the nomination — that is the least of the difficulties facing him.

If in 2012 the economic recovery is well underway, the budget is heading back into balance, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been thwarted and Iraq is relatively stable, Obama can call his first term a success. His more grandiose goals can be left to his second term. It is upon Obama’s ability to steer America through the stormy present that all else chiefly depends.

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Dwight Vandryver

January 16th, 2009 1:21am Report this comment

At the end of the day, it depends on the psychology of the American people. If they think they are beaten, as we do here by the continuing doom and gloom issuing from the media and politicians, then that will be their self-fulfilling destiny. On the other hand, it only takes one bank to put up the sign "business as usual", the rest will follow suit, and happy days will be here again - spending money we haven't earnt. Without consumerism, global economies grind to a halt. So let's get started buying stuff we don't actually need, but which expresses our own individualities. You know it makes sense until the Earth's natural resources finally become depleted.

robert

January 19th, 2009 9:59am Report this comment

The US economy is a highly developed and complex machine: for many years it was the engine of industry for the whole world. Can the nest President of the United States who is a lawyer and a social worker and a politician who got to where is is by smoke mirrors and other tricks fix it? I doubt it. We will have to rely on Congress: he will not be able to control congress: wait and see.

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