We are not ready for an escalation of violence in Ulster

11 March 2009

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Dean Godson says that this week’s murders have yielded impressive displays of cross-party unity. But they also draw attention to Northern Ireland’s vulnerability to terrorist attack, and the risks that were always inherent in the dismantling of the Province’s security structure

Whitehall’s greatest concern is that the security system will be further stretched by yet another commitment. With the end of the Iraqi deployment in sight, the army, for one, was looking forward to concentrating its efforts on a single big commitment — Afghanistan. Now, if things get worse in Ulster, it will at least have to think of relocating some of its resources back to the Province, which it could well have done without. Nor, for political reasons, does it have the luxury of re-recruiting the Home Service Battalions of the old Royal Irish Regiment — which would be unacceptable to Irish nationalists. So if patrolling had eventually to be resumed, it would have to be with regular troops.

Likewise, the security services could well do without further surveillance capacity being transferred to Northern Ireland: its spanking new regional HQ in Holywood, Co. Down, was partly meant to be a back-up to substitute for Thames House in the event of a devastating chemical or biological attack on London. Once again, the old Irish nationalist adage, ‘England’s danger is Ireland’s opportunity’, is coming into play — even if the apolitical militarists of Real IRA and Continuity IRA did not necessarily intend it that way.

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Ian

March 12th, 2009 11:14am Report this comment

This is a measured and essentially sound analysis from Dean Godson. I might take issue on a matter of fact - Irish welfare levels are currently HIGHER than Northern Ireland's - and on a matter of opinion - it is precisely when the southern economy is in difficulties that one can see a transference of Irish national self-esteem back on to the abstractions of republicanism and nationalism. It is not accidental that the relaxed attitude of the southern Irish to the Belfast Agreement and its consequences coincided with a burst of hedonism allied to "prosperity" in the years 1995 to 2008. By the same token, the sharp reversal of that "prosperity" heralds dangers for southern acquiescence in its continuation.

Paisleysnemisis

March 12th, 2009 1:40pm Report this comment

That is a good article and I would like to back up the accuracy of Ian's comments

Peter

March 12th, 2009 5:29pm Report this comment

An excellent analysis-certainly the best I've read so far - as you would expect from Dean. One worrying consequence he passes over however is that the 'remedy' of accelerating devolution of policing etc. may generate renewed, and destabilising unionist fears that the price of 'peace' is still further concessions to Republicans, especially if there are more such killings...

Herbert Thornton

March 13th, 2009 12:15am Report this comment

This was a most interesting analysis. It would be even more interesting to consider what the situation will be like when the Muslim population of England increases to a level where violence from Islamic extremism becomes an even bigger problem than violence in Northern Ireland.

Diarmuid

March 16th, 2009 9:46pm Report this comment

Fine, well balanced article. Two corrections should be made though. Firstly as alluded by other contributers, social welfare rates in the Republic of Ireland are significantly higher than in the UK. Unemployment benefit for young men is in fact 4 times the level in Northern Ireland. This has led to a significant problem with benefit tourist crossing the border to collect their dole.
A more serious quibble is with the suggestion that army patrols be put back on the street. This would be a serious mistake and would simply play into the hands of the callous murderers who took the lives of those innocent soldiers and policeman last week. The Real IRA want the British army back on the street. They know well the sight of armed soldiers in civilian areas would be a major propaganda victory for them. This is a job for the PSNI. We can only hope and pray for their success